2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, odds, sleepers: Will Zalatoris, Scottie Scheffler among best bets

The PGA Tour heads to Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week. This will be the fourth elevated event of the season, following the Tournament of Champions, WM Phoenix Open and the Genesis Invitational. Arnold Palmer’s event will now attract the best players in the world with its elevated status. The Florida swing was not ideal for everyone because of the tough playing conditions in the late winter and early spring before this year, but this year will see 44 of the top 50 in the world tee it up in Orlando.

I think it’s poignant to have the two biggest influencers of the growth of golf as a spectator sport as hosts of two straight elevated tournaments that surround the in-flux Honda Classic. Before there was Tiger Woods there was Palmer with a wink and a smile driving up television ratings and filling the fairways with spectators. While Palmer may not be there to shake hands with the winner his spirit lives on all around Bay Hill Club & Lodge.

The fully stacked field this week will be facing a tough test of golf as Bay Hill Golf Cub is a Par 72 that measures over 7,400 yards and features water on most holes. The course can play particularly hard because of the wind which can dry out the course making for firm and fast conditions with tricky strong winds that can wreak havoc. The long rough can be almost as punishing as the occasional water ball.

Tiger Woods won an amazing eight times here. While that accomplishment seems outrageous, it might be more amazing that Matt Every won back-to-back tournaments in 2014 and 2015. Driving distance and swing speed have been key factors here over the years, but strokes gained on approach has been the biggest key when conditions are at their toughest. When setting up the model this week I’m targeting players with power off the tee, higher-than-average swing speeds for the rough and accuracy on approach. I’m also weighing course history a little bit more this week. Some players may fall down the pecking order because of that, but you can adjust your sheet as you see fit.

Betting Slip

All odds from BetMGM.

Scottie Scheffler +900 was able to defend his title at the WM Phoenix Open by continuing to be elite from tee to green while improving his putting from where it had been in the fall and early on in 2023. Scheffler won here last year in tough conditions and the Texan may see familiar tough winds this week as well. You can actually shop this price up to +1000 in some places, but getting Scheffler at +900 is fine with me with his current form. He gained 7.5 strokes combined off the tee and on approach at the Genesis Invitational in what was somehow a disappointing 12th-place finish.

Will Zalatoris +2200 is fully recovered from his injury if the stats are to be believed from the Genesis Invitational. He gained across the board that week, but most importantly he gained 10.2 strokes from tee to green. Zalatoris attended Wake Forest on the Arnold Palmer scholarship but never got to meet the man that did so much for so many golfers who came through the Tobacco Road school. Call me sentimental if you want, but I want this one to hit for a lot of reasons.

Justin Thomas +2500 hasn’t played here since 2015 but can’t be ignored at this number. He made a nice run up the leaderboard on Sunday at the WM Phoenix Open where he gained an amazing 12.1 strokes from tee to green for the week. He struggled a bit at the Genesis Invitational, but his around-the-green game was once again elite gaining 2.9 strokes for the week.

Sleepers

Jordan Spieth +4500 finished T4 here in 2021 and gained 11.5 strokes from tee to green at the WM Phoenix Open. His putter has been a problem for a while now and his driving accuracy can be so bad that water comes heavily into play. The things to like are the T4 in tough conditions here while Bryson DeChambeau was overpowering the course and gaining 11.2 strokes on approach combined over his last two tournaments. I’m betting this more for the number than for the form or course fit, but there are some breadcrumbs that give me hope including his creative shot-making in windy conditions.

Keith Mitchell +5000 has four straight made cuts here with two top-six finishes. He also has two top-five finishes in his last three outings. He is second in the field in strokes gained off the tee and has a win in Florida at the Honda Classic in 2019.

Gary Woodland +9000 finished T5 here in tough conditions last season and is coming into this week on a decent run of form which topped out at the Genesis Invitational where he gained 9.7 strokes on approach.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +15000 is a bit of a horse for the course despite his volatility at most places. He has three straight top-20 finishes here with a seventh-place finish being his best in 2021. He isn’t in his best form, but finished 11th at the American Express and gained strokes off the tee and on approach at the Honda Classic.

Taylor Pendrith +12500 has made 16 out of his last 17 cuts since last year’s Genesis Invitational. When his game is at its best he is borderline dominant off the tee and excellent with his irons. He has gained across the board in all major strokes gained categories in two out of his last three tournaments and finished T42 here last year on his first try. Be sure to shop around for the best number as he’s +22000 on some sportsbooks.

DFS Plays

Jon Rahm $11,500 is the best player in the world right now and it’s hard to argue against using him this week, but the amount of talent you will have to skip over to fit his $11,500 price tag is staggering. The $900 discount to Rory McIlroy is as attractive as one of those Taco Bell special boxes when you pull up late at night. I can get all of that for that much less?!!! Check the projected ownership numbers and if Rahm creeps below 20% then it’s time to pay up.

Scottie Scheffler $10,900 is the defending champ and plays great in the wind. What’s not to like? See above for further reasons to make him your highest-priced DFS play.

Rory McIlroy $10,600 started off the year on a heater overseas but hasn’t been quite as sharp in the United States yet. He has an excellent record at Bay Hill including a win in 2018, but his ownership % could be a bit of an issue. I don’t see fitting two players above 10K this week as an optimal approach. I’m going to be under his ownership number, but I’m not fading him with his record here.

Justin Thomas $9,600 See above.

Will Zalatoris $9,400 See above.

Patrick Cantlay $9,100 was a must-play for me at a cheap price at the Genesis Invitational, but this week I’m a little more cautious. I would rather pay up for Will Zalatoris most of the time, but I can’t ignore the fact that he gained more than 13 strokes from tee to green at the Genesis Invitational.

Viktor Hovland $9,000 has struggled on the weekends at the Arnold Palmer Invitationals, but he has put himself in the conversation on most trips here. His T2 last year was a nice showing in tough conditions. He is still struggling around the green but looks like he is on the verge of becoming his dominant self off the tee and on approach. He gained 7.2 strokes combined off the tee at the WM Phoenix Open and Genesis Invitational. He gained 3 strokes on approach at the Genesis Invitational.

Cameron Young $8,700 is the type of player Arnold Palmer would have rooted for. I shouldn’t have backed him at the Phoenix Open as he was coming back from overseas after a tough tournament finish the prior week. He then backed up his second-place finish at the Genesis Invitational in 2022 with a solid 20th-place finish this year. He gained 7.2 strokes combined off the tee and on approach that week but will need his putter to contribute if he’s going to hit.

Jordan Spieth $8,600 See above.

Jason Day $8,500 is on a tremendous run of form of late with three straight top-10 finishes and was a winner here back in 2017. Day is fifth in strokes gained total over his last 36 rounds and 11th in strokes gained on approach over that same time frame.

Tyrrell Hatton’s $8,300 has five straight made cuts here with a win in 2020 and a T2 here last year in tough conditions. He has gained a ton of strokes off the tee this year and has gained over 4 strokes on approach in two out of his last five tournaments. Tough to ignore him in cash games, but you might want to look elsewhere in GPPs if his ownership gets out of control.

Keith Mitchell $8,000 See above.

Shane Lowry $7,900 has back-to-back top 15 finishes with a T5 at the Honda Classic last week. He is back to gaining a ton of strokes on approach as he has gained 7.4 strokes against the field in his last two tournaments combined. He doesn’t have a great history here for whatever reason so I would be a bit careful going all in on him this week.

Chris Kirk $7,700 was the winner last week at the Honda Classic in a field good story that everyone in the golf world can get behind. If we had written an article last week he would have been a big part of it, which Andrew DeWitt’s one-and-done total shows below. He’s been excellent here and is in excellent form with no real significant bump in price to speak of so he’s still in play. I loved how he looked in control of his iron swing last week and hope he brings that again this week.

Rickie Fowler $7,700 has gained 15.1 strokes on approach combined over his last three tournaments with his worst finish being 20th. He has five straight made cuts here and some of those were when his game was in shambles.

Tommy Fleetwood $7,500 is a nice course horse here who does it in a different way than most at Bay Hill. He combines a nice iron game (19th in strokes gained on approach over his last 36 rounds) with an excellent short game (ninth in strokes gained short game). He’s made four out of his last five cuts here with a T3 and a T10 included.

Seamus Power $7,400 shows up in my model as a nice course fit even though he missed the cut on his only try. He isn’t as sharp as he was in the fall where he had a win and two other top 5 finishes, but he is super hot with his putter. He has also gained strokes on approach in two straight which is encouraging.

Gary Woodland $7,400 See above.

Min Woo Lee $7,300 missed the cut here last year, but his current form is too good to ignore. He has five top five finishes since October world wide and played solidly at the Honda Classic gaining 4.31 strokes off the tee. He’s one of the most exciting young talents on any tour and this course should fit his game.

Adrian Meronk $7,200 is no longer a secret weapon in DFS as many have seen his name heavily involved in big time lineups. He gained 3.98 strokes on approach at the Honda Classic and is long off the tee.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout $7,100 See above.

Byeong Hun An $7,000 is back on the PGA Tour and enhancing everyone’s Twitter feed each and every week. He made his last four cuts here with two top 15 finishes in 2018 and 2019. He’s gained some distance since returning from the Korn Ferry Tour. He’s made four out of his last five cuts and gained strokes on approach in four straight.

Taylor Pendrith $6,900 See above.

Ben Griffin $6,700 has made 10 out of his last 11 cuts while gaining on approach in every one of those tournaments. I love him with his form at this price.

Pierceson Coody $6,100 is one to watch this week. The rookie on tour had his first start as a professional last week at the Honda Classic and had an excellent opening round before struggling in his last three rounds. He still gained over 2 strokes for the week on approach for the week, but the pressure may have gotten to him. He’s long off the tee and has a bright future so keep an eye on him.

One and Done

Standings

DeWitt: $5,278,516 (6 of 7 cuts made, 1 winner)

Hayes: $2,235,533 (6 of 7 cuts made)

Esser: $1,281,582 (5 of 7 cuts made)

DeWitt has built an early-season lead with three straight weeks of netting more than $1.4 million in purses including picking Kirk to win the Honda Classic last week. We pick in reverse order of the standings each week.

Dennis Esser: I’m going with the Wake Forest connection in Will Zalatoris. He looks to be ultimately over his injury and the story would write itself if he could win at Arnie’s tournament. The $20 million purse, including $3.6 million to the winner, is huge so using a big name here is going to be tempting for everyone after Rahm and Scheffler have swept the first three elevated events.

John Hayes: Keith Mitchell has two top-five finishes in his last three starts on tour and his only win was here in Florida. His game is in a great place and he typically feels comfortable on Bermuda grass. Mitchell’s strength is his driver and that should help vs. a stacked field. I’m hoping for a low ownership percentage.

Andrew DeWitt: I’m going with Tyrrell Hatton in this spot. He plays pretty well in Florida and in tough conditions. He has an early morning round on Friday when the wind is expected to be the worst this week in the afternoon. I considered using Scheffler in this spot, but think I’ll save him for the FedEx Cup Playoffs or one of the majors.

(Photo of Will Zalatoris: Cliff Hawkins / Getty Images)