The PGA Tour moves from the desert landscape of La Quinta, California to the lush scenery that surrounds Torrey Pines in San Diego this week for a tournament that runs Wednesday-Saturday to avoid conflicts with the NFL’s championship Sunday. While the venue may have changed, the main attraction stays the same as Jon Rahm is once again favored to win a golf tournament in a place he has dominated over the years. We haven’t seen Jon Rahm reach double digits in odds to win since very early Sunday at the Tournament of Champions, where he chased down Collin Morikawa. This week it may be best to look for a prop bet where you can take the field against Rahm like they used to offer when Tiger Woods dominated at Torrey Pines and in major championships.

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While Rahm is the clear-cut favorite and is even in play at a lofty $11,600 on DraftKings, I will try to look for players that could pull off the seemingly impossible this week or at least give us a decent way to hedge our bets like Xander Schauffele was able to do late on Sunday last week. After all the PGA Tour youngster Davis Thompson who pushed Jon Rahm all the way to the end last week, is in the field once again this week.

This week’s field is incredibly top-heavy and is missing most of the key DP World Tour players that can boost the field strength. The Farmers Insurance Open is going up against the Dubai Desert Classic where Rory McIlroy is a heavy favorite to win. Many of the PGA Tour’s best players used to start their new year by teeing it up in San Diego, but that might be a thing of the past with the Farmers Insurance Open not being an enhanced purse.

All odds from BetMGM. 

Betting Card

Sungjae Im +2200 has steadily improved his finishing positions at the Farmers Insurance Open over the last few years. After missing the cut at the Sony Open he bounced back at the American Express with a T18. He gained 1.69 strokes off the tee and gained 1.6 strokes with his putter. He was still a little shaky with his iron game, but I’m not too concerned.

Jason Day +2500 is a big-time horse for the course at Torrey Pines. He has won here twice in 2015 and 2018 and finished top 3 two other times. I would love to get Day at a better number than this, but he may get off to a hot start as he begins his week off 10 on the North Course as the third group off the tee.

Sleepers

Taylor Pendrith +8000 may have missed the cut last week, but that won’t stop me from backing him this week. Pendrith wasn’t a great fit at The American Express but fits the mold of a player who can conquer the more than 7,700 yards that is Torrey Pines’ South Course. He’s long off the tee averaging over 317 yards off the tee and hitting more than 73% of his greens in regulation over his last 36 holes. He finished inside the top 15 here last year and let’s face it Luke List was able to win here as a much worse version of Pendrith.

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Hayden Buckley +10000 finished second at the Sony Open, and I was kicking myself for not being more invested in him there. Buckley has more than enough power averaging over 307 yards off the tee, and has been better than 65% when it comes to hitting the fairway. He has been able to parlay that into hitting over 73.5% of his greens in regulation over his last 36 rounds.

Davis Thompson +12500 had a great fight last week against Jon Rahm at The American Express. I know most people think the flagstick kept him from tying it up on No. 17, but I think hitting the flagstick might have actually saved him a stroke. It was tough to see, but that ball picked up speed those last few feet by the hole. Thompson is averaging more than 313 yards off the tee and is hitting 72% of his greens in regulation over his last 36 rounds. I’m riding the hot hand, hoping he doesn’t have a hangover after that performance.

DFS Plays

Jon Rahm $11,600 is priced higher than he ever has been at Torrey Pines and that’s saying something as he is almost always the favorite here. The board is incredibly top-heavy and many will jump at the $1,100 discount to go down to Finau, but I am a bit reluctant to go less than 20% ownership across my teams. I feel good about the players that make up my core in the $7k and $8k range, so it brings Rahm into a lot of builds.

Tony Finau $10,500 has been tremendous this season, and of course, it pales in comparison to Jon Rahm at the top of this board. Over his last 36 rounds, Finau is No. 1 in the field in strokes gained total and tee to green according to Fantasynational.com. Ownership numbers are going to be huge with the top 3 here so if you are looking to go contrarian, you may want to look at Collin Morikawa at $10,000 who gets the easier start for the week on the North Course.

Xander Schauffele $10,300 looked healthy last week at The American Express. He was able to record an albatross on the 5th hole to help him shoot a 62 in the final round. The San Diego area native struggled here for a bit but seems to have overcome that lately and should be in play in all formats.

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Sungjae Im $9,300 will slide under the radar a bit, with most teams trying to grab two of the top-priced players to start their teams. Justin Thomas ($9,400) and Will Zalatoris ($9,700) are DFS darlings and will grab more ownership and attention even though Sungjae Im is probably in better form.

Taylor Montgomery $9,200 continues his amazing run on the PGA Tour. He has finished 15th or better in eight of his last nine PGA Tour Events and has cut here on his last two trips, including a T11 last year. Ride the horse until he bucks you at this point.

Jason Day $8,800 See above.

J.J. Spaun $8,500 was volatile after his win at the Valero Texas Open last year. He would sometimes miss cuts and put up big scores to crush DFS teams. Then in October, he seemed to find something and starting at the Shriners, he finished 15th or better in five of his last seven tournaments. He’s not the ideal profile for Torrey Pines, but you can’t ignore how he’s playing right now.

Justin Rose $8,100 won here in 2019 and has three other top 10s since 2017. He’s made three straight cuts on the PGA Tour and looks to be playing some solid golf. If he had putt it well on Sunday at The American Express, he may have popped up on the leaderboard. I will be under his final ownership percentage a little, but I’m not fading him.

Hayden Buckley $8,000 See above.

Taylor Pendrith $7,900 See above.

Davis Thompson $7,800 See above.

Thomas Detry $7,600 is the glaring miss price this week. I’m almost afraid to see what his ownership percentage ends up at in smaller GPPs. Detry scored more than 100 fantasy points last week and helped many of my teams. He averages over 315 yards off the tee and should like the Torrey Pines South Course set up.

Will Gordon $7,400 missed the cut last week because of hit putting. He had been on a tremendous run before that missed cut. I’m hoping that recency bias has some DFS players taking him off their list this week. He’s made the cut in his last two trips, and he averages a respectable 309 yards off the tee while hitting 73% of his greens in regulation over his last 36 rounds.

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Ben Griffin $7,300 continues to be a plug-and-play option for me this week. If anything was going to give me any pause, it would be accuracy off the tee (only 52.1% over his last 36 rounds), but luckily that doesn’t usually matter much here. I will probably flip-flop a lot with the next guy on my list for some differentiating lineups.

Robby Shelton $7,200 finished 36th and 16th in his last two trips despite not being a long hitter off the tee. He had a great year on the Korn Ferry Tour last year, and it looks like he’s bringing that form onto the PGA Tour, as he already has two top 10s under his belt.

Ben Taylor $7,100 missed the cut last week, which let him fly under the radar a bit this week. He comes into this week 15th in the field in strokes gained total over his last 36 rounds. He missed the cut last week but already has two top-four finishes.

Matthias Schmid $7,000 has been a player that has intrigued me for the last few years, and I like what I’m seeing from him off the tee. He’s averaging over 315 yards off the tee, which helped him to a T6 last week at The American Express.

Lanto Griffin $7,000 is returning to the PGA Tour from a long layoff due to back surgery. He warmed up on the Korn Ferry Tour last week and struggled after making the cut. He was always in play for me here, but I will have to wait and see before using him. I want you to be aware if you see the name and remember he was a good Torrey Pines player the last few years.

Monday Qualifier Harrison Kingsley, who’s a redshirt senior at the University of San Diego, will be teeing it up at his home course after Monday qualifying. He was named All-WCC during his redshirt junior season and won the Mark Simpson Colorado Invitational. I have to say the mullet he sported last year would have made him a shoo-in for one of my studs and duds lineups.

One and Done

Standings
Hayes: $369,387.22
DeWitt: $31,387.22
Esser: $28,045

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Dennis Esser: I must tell you that Brian Harman is now on my never use list when it comes to one and done. He crushed me a while ago when he missed the cut at the John Deere Classic and this week he knocked me out of the survivor pool before it ever got going. I was going back and forth between Jason Day and Justin Rose for this week because I wanted to once again stay away from the big guns with the smaller purse. Both have great history here, but I decided to go with Jason Day, knowing it’s only a matter of time before he picks up another injury. Day has gained 1.11 strokes against the field on average over his last 36 rounds.

Andrew DeWitt: I will go with Ryan Palmer this week. These courses have had a ton of rain this winter, and it helps that Palmer is still long off the tee. He’s had a good amount of success at this tournament finishing T16, T21, and T13 in the last three years. He did finish top 35 at the Sony a couple of weeks ago, so his game isn’t too rusty.

This is a really top-heavy field, and hopefully, someone can make sure Rahm doesn’t win again this week.

John Hayes: This week I have Justin Rose after his sixth-place finish here last season. The combination of course experience and recent form makes him a solid option to make the cut and potentially contend into the final round on Saturday.

In 2022 Rose’s 10.7 strokes gained at Torrey Pines was led by his tee-to-green and approach play.

Last week Rose missed out on a top-25 finish by one place while losing strokes on approach and on the green. I expect the veteran to improve on both aspects of his game at a place he enjoys playing. This feels like a good tournament to pick someone like Rose instead of burning a favorite like Jon Rahm so early in the season.

(Photo of Jason Day: Meg Oliphant/Getty Images)