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We’re less than two months away from the NBA Draft, which means teams are starting to dive much deeper into the process and figure out their boards. Given that we finally have a real understanding of which players will and will not participate in the lead-up to draft day, it’s time to update this board.

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The NBA’s early-entry deadline has come and gone, with 242 players entering the NBA Draft process early. Last year, 283 players decided to test the waters. The year before, that number was 353. The reason we’re seeing a decrease is simple: As more players with extra COVID-19 years age out of college basketball, fewer players are eligible to declare early.

There is also a bit of a cooling effect happening in this draft cycle. A larger-than-normal group of interesting draft-eligible prospects decided not to declare, including Duke big Kyle Filipowski, Duke guard Tyrese Proctor, Connecticut big Donovan Clingan and Florida wing Riley Kugel. All four of those players would have had a chance to be taken in the first round had they declared. Players make decisions using very different motivations, and there is never a one-size-fits-all explanation for why a rash of players decide to go back. However, one reason why is the perceived lack of strength in the 2024 NBA Draft.

Next year’s draft is seen as one of the weakest cycles of talent in the last decade – at least at the top of the class. Recent McDonald’s All-American, Nike Hoop Summit and Iverson Classic events have been loaded with top potential 2024 prospects and open to NBA evaluators. I’ve asked a number of NBA executives, scouts and agents over the last month at what pick in the 2023 draft do they think their current favorite player in the 2024 draft would be taken. The answer I get is typically somewhere between No. 5 and No. 8. Some NBA evaluators believe there is no player in the 2024 class who would be taken in the top seven of this class. I personally think that is a bit aggressive, but I wouldn’t take any of the 2024 prospects currently over my top five in 2023. These players, of course, are a year behind in terms of their development.

Someone will likely rise into being worthy of a top-five pick, even if we don’t see it right now. Guys get better, and development is not linear. But think back to last year. Both Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson would have absolutely gone in the top three of the 2022 NBA Draft. I believe Chet Holmgren would have gone in the top five in 2021 coming directly out of high school (Paolo Banchero had just a couple more questions before his breakout Duke freshman season). The No. 1 overall pick in 2021, Cade Cunningham, likely would have gone at No. 1 a year early. The last cycle like this was in 2020, which is a draft cycle that has not proven to be particularly impressive. Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball and Tyrese Haliburton have morphed into All-Stars. But it’s hard to pinpoint where the next one will come from if Desmond Bane doesn’t make a team in the future, and 11 of the top-17 picks are still pretty solidly entrenched as bench players.

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All of this means there is a ton of space for players to return and rise up the board. It wouldn’t stun me if we see some older college players — and even some younger ones —  return to school even after going through the pre-draft cycle this year. There is so much uncertainty with that class moving forward that it’s difficult to blame anyone for taking their chances next year.

So where does that leave the 2023 class? Right now, I have Victor Wembanyama in his own tier at No. 1. The next tier would come from No. 2 down to No. 5. Then, another tier from No. 6 to No. 12. The next group goes from No. 13 to No. 22, and those are the players I feel very confident will hear their names called in the first round right now. After that, it’s a free-for-all from No. 23 down to about No. 42, with all of those players having a very realistic chance to play their way into a first-round pick or slide out and have to answer real questions about whether they stay in this draft class.

The back half of the first round is one that is intensely up for debate among scouts in front offices. The beauty is truly in the eye of the beholder among a lot of these players, and there are polarizing takes on some of the higher upside players, just as there are on some of the older, more experienced guys. Teams see so many players as candidates for those slots right now that I don’t think you can really be wrong in any opinion you have.

Here is where my board stands now.

• This board does not take team fit into account. Boston’s board will look different than Phoenix’s, and they look for different skills than the Heat. If I were with one of those specific teams, running their specific scheme and system, this board would assuredly change. What this board tries to do is take the general direction of the NBA and slot in players I think will play a role at the next level in the largest variety of situations. With the way the NBA is going, wings tend to end up higher on my board than bigs, as every team needs more perimeter players who are multi-positional defenders. Players with plus positional size, skill and high basketball IQs also tend to feature higher for me because those are the guys who end up being sought-after by NBA teams. Also, those are the guys I’d be looking to accumulate given where the NBA is going, regardless of scheme.
• As mentioned above, I get input and information from NBA executives, college coaches and other evaluators during the process. It’s critical to have conversations with folks around the basketball community to get a well-rounded picture of a player’s future. Sometimes it’s about his background and off-court habits. Sometimes it’s about his work ethic. Other times, it’s just a conversation about whether we think a guy can play. At the end of the day, this is my ranking, and while it is reflective of the general tenor of NBA teams, it’s not necessarily what the consensus would be.

Victor Wembanyama update

Wembanyama remains the clear No. 1 overall pick in this forthcoming class after a dominant season in France that is among the most impressive pre-draft seasons for a single prospect in history. He is currently leading the French league — a difficult pro league with high-level professionals across the board — in points at 21.5, rebounds at 10.1 and blocks at 3.1 (nearly doubling the per-game block total of any other player in the league). He has Metropolitans 92 at 20-10 this season, second in the league behind Monaco, a power that finished top four in Euro league. Again, Metropolitans is typically a good but mid-table team in France. Wembanyama’s presence — as well as that of French national team head coach Vincent Collet — has transformed them into contenders.

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The evaluation remains the same. He’s a 7-foot-4 center who can create his own shot from all three levels in some regard. He’s a terrific pick-and-roll player as a ballhandler or screener. His handle is better than any teenage supergiant in history. Defensively, his near-8-foot wingspan changes the geometry of the game around the rim. And he’s ready to help teams win now. The most recent absurdity that Wembanyama pulled was creating a stepback 3-point opportunity, missing the shot and somehow getting his own rebound for a tip dunk. Consistently, Wembanyama does things I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player do before. Sometimes, it’s things I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player even attempt.

Wemby got his own rebound for the jam 😳

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I think Wembanyama and Giannis Antetokounmpo are the only people on the planet who could do that. The Wembanyama hype train remains real. The NBA Draft Lottery on May 16 will be the most important since 2003, when the Cavaliers won the opportunity to select LeBron James.

Biggest movers

Kobe Bufkin | G | Michigan | 19 years old | No. 11

Bufkin is the biggest mover up the board after having done more of a deep dive into his game following the season. Not only is he clearly Michigan’s best prospect, but I have a lottery grade on him right now. There isn’t really anything he does poorly. A couple of NBA executives have brought up the idea to me that he doesn’t necessarily “pop” for them, and there are some concerns we’ll delve into, but Bufkin is a well-rounded, long-armed 6-foot-4 guard who I think has upside to play as a true lead long term. And more importantly, he’s the kind of two-way player who likely won’t take anything off the floor.

Bufkin’s top skill is finishing around the basket. He made 67 percent of his shots at the rim in half-court settings, an absurd number for a teenage guard (Bufkin played his entire sophomore season at 19 years old and is younger than freshmen such as Jarace Walker, Brandon Miller and his teammate Jett Howard). But more than that, what I love about Bufkin is that there is no fluff to his game. There is no wasted motion. He makes quick decisions. If he has an open shot, he’ll take it. If he needs to attack a closeout, he’ll attack it quickly. He tries to get downhill if he can both when he’s playing on and off ball. He plays in straight lines, and he’s really smart. He rarely turns the ball over.

But beyond that, he’s really skilled. He’s sharp in ball-screen actions. He’s still developing the right mix between shooting and passing, but he hits high-level passing reads regularly with one-handed live-dribble kick-outs and lobs with either hand. As a pull-up threat, he’s still developing. But he made 33 percent from 3 on those shots. He’s good at stringing out his man in drop coverage and stopping them with hesitation dribbles, then stepping back and firing on-balance. He has real shot versatility, in that he can get to them from 3 or from the midrange area. But he also makes them directly off the catch too. He hit 37 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s this season on about three per game, per Synergy. His high release point helps him here, and he is always aligned and ready to catch and fire, and he shows real upside off movement.

I also think Bufkin is also a sharp defender. He’s one of eight high-major draft prospects to average at least 1.2 steals and 0.8 blocks per game. He’s good on the ball against guards due to his pressure. You have to always be aware of his hands, and he uses his quickness well. He stays in front of his man and uses that length to contest jumpers well but also fights through screens at a high level. Off the ball, he’s good in rotation, and he’s a sharp weakside rim protector for a guard. He’s terrific as a scramble defender.

All of this leads to Bufkin being incredibly impactful on the court. Over the course of the season, Michigan’s drastic defensive improvement was in big part due to him. The Wolverines went from outside of the top 100 defensively nationally in the first half of the season to actually becoming the second-best defensive team in the Big Ten in terms of defensive efficiency. Bufkin was, by far, the most impactful player on Michigan this year. When Bufkin was on the court, Michigan beat its opponent by 10 points per 100 possessions. When Bufkin was off the court, Michigan lost those minutes by 12 points per 100 possessions. In Big Ten, it was even more drastic, as Michigan won its minutes with Bufkin by 10.1 points and lost its minutes without him by 20.1 points per 100.

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So what are the concerns? Bufkin is still pretty skinny. The biggest place you see those struggles is on the ball. His handle is OK for a teenage combo guard but needs to take a few steps forward still. Particularly, he has to get stronger on the ball and be able to keep his dribble alive. He can get bothered by teams that really try to get into his body with aggressive, physical on-ball defense. For instance, Rutgers gave him some problems with how it blitzes and really plays with intensity on the ball. While he’s good against drop coverage, I think he can struggle to string guys out and force mismatches against more aggressive schemes. Beyond that, I don’t love Bufkin’s game in isolation when trying to create his own shot. While he plays terrific pace and poise, I don’t think he’s quite there yet in terms of being able to string together a bunch of moves, in part because of that ability to keep his dribble alive.

That should come with the strength he should be able to add, given that he has good length and a solid frame. Bufkin reminds me a lot of Derrick White in terms of frame, quickness, length, instincts and skill. White is a guy whom I similarly had ranked in the top 15 of his draft class despite the fact that he ended up going toward the end of the first round. And I think Bufkin has a bit more upside if it all comes together for him in terms of his game off the bounce. I feel pretty good about him as a lottery pick, and there is a chance he slides up the board as the process continues.

Taylor Hendricks | F | UCF | 19 years old | No. 6

Hendricks being up to No. 6 might be a pretty real stunner to people, given that he entered college with very little excitement regarding his potential as a one-and-done. But he emerged quickly as a likely top-20 pick in the class back in November. And he’s risen up the board throughout the course of the process to where I think I’d be a bit surprised if he didn’t hear his name called in the top 12. I wrote in the most recent big board that Hendricks was the name I’d heard most from executives when I ask, “What player will go higher than currently projected?” Indeed, scouts are very much in on Hendricks as a lottery guy.

Why do I currently have him as a top half of the lottery player? It has to do with how translatable his game looks toward playing in the playoffs. Hendricks is a monster defensive prospect. He has immense length for being 6-foot-9 with something in the ballpark of a 7-foot-2 wingspan. He’s a good weakside rim protector. His sense of timing on that end is tremendous. He goes up mostly off two feet and is ready to meet his man at the rim with strong hands and a balanced center of gravity. On top of that, he has awesome anticipation for when his services are needed to clean up messes. He’s a terrific scrambler. Beyond that, I also like his switchability. He can straight up switch ball screens as a four. He has really good feet and is a very fluid mover. He gets a bit upright at times, but it doesn’t really impact how well he moves and can change direction because he can also bend and flip his hips with ease. Consistently, he gets his chest in front of his man and uses his length to bother opposing players and contest every shot. But he is also enormous for how quickly he moves, allowing him to just envelop his man in his chest and length. Every NBA team is looking for guys who are this big and athletic on that end who can also play on the offensive end.

And indeed, I buy Hendricks on the offensive end. He made 40.9 percent on over 130 catch-and-shoot 3s this past season. The mechanics are easy and basic in the best way. He has a high release point that allows him to shoot over the top of his defender with ease. That makes him reliable over tight closeouts. He can cut backdoor and be an elite level finisher if a shot is being created for him there.

What are the worries? He is very limited right now in what he can do off the bounce. He can attack a closeout and is comfortable doing so, but I don’t really trust him as a self creator in a substantial way at the moment. He needs to improve his touch at the rim on the move, and I think he needs to improve his feel as a passer and playmaker on those drives as well. There are some real holes here.

So why do I have Hendricks over someone like, say, Jarace Walker at the moment? I think Hendricks profiles a bit better in the NBA as a switchable defender, and I like his jumper drastically more. Walker is better right now as a passer, and I think his feel for the game is a bit more naturally developed. But I buy Hendricks’ movement skills more as a big, long four, and the most important thing a player like this can do with those skills is shoot. Walker strikes me more as a four/five type of power forward in terms of movement, whereas Hendricks is more of a four/three type. And I like the latter archetype more than the former. At the very least, you’re talking about a plus shooter who will fly around, protect the rim, scramble well and switch. I might go back and forth on that duo a couple more times through the process, as there will be some real conversation there between teams in the lottery. But right now, I can’t quite get past Hendricks and his potential in the playoffs.

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Leonard Miller | F | G League Ignite | 19 years old | No. 13

More than any other player, I think there is a chance I’m going to be out on an island with Miller this year as maybe his biggest fan in the public sphere. And that’s a funny change, because last year, I was about as skeptical on him as anyone. Last year, I thought he was far too raw and undeveloped as a project. This year, things are closer to being ready for an NBA court.

Ultimately, I rank players based on what kind of value I believe the team will receive when they select the player. An example that I always bring up in this regard is Talen Horton-Tucker. I thought the odds were that Horton-Tucker would likely be one of the 30 best players to come out of the 2019 draft class once we went back at the end of their careers and ranked them all. However, I ranked him at No. 45 because I thought there was no way the first team that had him would end up getting a lot of value from him. I thought his defensive fundamentals and shooting were so far away from being playable on an NBA court that it would take multiple stops for him to establish himself.

The Lakers drafted Horton-Tucker, and after he showed a bit of potential after his second season, they rewarded him with a fairly large contract. However, they didn’t get much value in terms of positive, winning impact on the court and only ended up receiving an expiring Patrick Beverley in return for him. That turned into Mo Bamba, who is out of their playoff rotation. Meanwhile, in stop No. 2, in his fourth season in the NBA, Horton-Tucker continues to show interesting on-ball skills, having averaged 18 points, five rebounds and six assists in his final 22 games for the Jazz. Odds are, Horton-Tucker will end up being good at some point, given that he’s still only 22 years old. But the Lakers didn’t really get anything from it for drafting him.

In Miller’s case, a pick last season would have resulted in something similar, in my opinion. However, this season, Miller has shown such drastic growth that it’s hard not to love him.

His physical tools are absurd. He came in at 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-2 wingspan and a 9-foot standing reach at last year’s combine. But his rare blend of athletic traits make him interesting. He looks like he constantly lives on the edge of being off-balance where it seems like his body is moving in different directions at the same time. However, he’s clearly confident and comfortable within his own movements, which means he’s able to get to his spots. He has great body control and takes bumps well, displaying the fact that his balance is actually quite good despite how it seems. But he also has the ability to initiate bumps. He’s typically the one who is handing out the contact even as a teenager playing against professionals in the G League. And the results end up being that he is an elite finisher, having made 67 percent of his shots at the rim this season. He can make passing reads and stay with his eyes up because of that ability to take those bumps. He dished out 2.5 assists versus only 1.5 turnovers in his final 15 games. Overall, Miller was actually the most productive G League Ignite draft-eligible player we’ve seen. He averaged 17 points and 10 rebounds over the course of the full season. In 14 games from Feb. 8 onward, Miller averaged 20 points and 13 rebounds per game with one steal and one block. He shot 55.6 percent from the field, 37 percent from 3 and 82 percent from the line.

His last stretch of games is worth valuing because Miller was at a real experience deficit entering the season. He had not played really any high-level basketball at that point. He didn’t play a ton as an underclassman at Wasatch Academy because he was stuck behind some high-level recruits. Then he hurt his wrist prior to an AAU season when he was set to play for UPlay. Then he grew to 6-foot-10 and played in the Ontario Scholastic League, a league he could simply dominate athletically. His first high-level games were at Hoop Summit and at the NBA Draft Combine last year. Of course he was going to struggle early in his G League season as he adjusted to competition level. Even someone like Scoot Henderson had drastically more high-level hoops experience playing in Georgia prior to committing to the Ignite program.

The key for Miller was always going to be what he looked like in February and March, and by then, he had figured out the G League in terms of transition play, rebounding and playing through contact. He’s not a perfect player. He has a ways to go as a shooter still, although he’s already working toward making some mechanical adjustments in terms of his base and off-hand placement this offseason, and he clearly has touch with how he finishes around the rim. Defensively, he looked better by the end of the year than by the beginning, but there are still some late moments in terms of help defense and rotations. Again, he only has one year of good, solid basketball experience.  But every coach and trainer who has been around him describes him as a sponge, an intellectually curious player who just wants to learn everything.

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If you’re going upside-hunting in this class, Miller is a worthwhile bet I’d invest in.

Sleeper notes

• Bilal Coulibaly, Wembanyama’s teammate with Metropolitans 92, is a hot name currently for NBA front offices. A 6-foot-7 or so wing with something in the ballpark of a 7-foot-1 wingspan, Coulibaly has elite length for a wing, and the flash plays he showcases from time to time are absurd. Coulibaly is a classic highlight guy right now. There are moments when he looks like a lottery pick with his mix of mobility, explosiveness and length. You get him out in space, and it’s a show. He’s going to throw down all over everyone. There are also moments he looks like he’s nowhere near ready for the NBA as a teenager playing in a tough professional league. When you watch full games of Metropolitans — which many NBA scouts have done throughout the season because of Wembanyama — he’s not quite as impactful as his athleticism would indicate. He’s still very much a project.

But he’s a project whom teams are fascinated by because of those athletic tools. If you get him out in transition, he’s a freight train. The jumper mechanics look projectable — albeit a bit hitchy with a long release — even if he’s only made 34 percent from 3 so far this season across all competitions, including in the Espoir youth league in France. Coulibaly is assured to be drafted at some point, and it’ll likely come in the first round. The only question for him is whether to try his luck this season when he’s still this unfinished product or to go next season after an offseason of development into a weaker 2024 class. Right now, I have him as a late first rounder.

• I’ve recently wrote about Wake Forest’s Bobi Klintman as a really fun upside swing for an NBA team to take as a 6-foot-10 wing with real shooting and passing upside.

Teams are constantly on the hunt for big wings like Klintman (and Coulibaly) with legitimate size and skill with body control. Much like Coulibaly, Klintman has real options at his disposal through this process and will need to figure out if he can get some sort of assurance on a draft range. As referenced above, things get very murky in this class outside of the top 22 or so. Klintman is the guy I’m willing to bet on outside of that range. Now it comes down to whether he and his representation can find the right potential landing spots.

• In general, the disappointing piece of this class has been the performance of the upperclassmen, but there is at least some enthusiasm to be had regarding a few. Missouri forward Kobe Brown is a name I’ve heard a lot as someone who could rise up the board due to his size and shooting skill. Teams want to learn a bit more about his frame and if they can thin it out a bit and add some quickness defensively to his game. But I have gotten a lot of notes about him as a potential top-40 pick, with some first-round upside if the pre-draft process goes well.

Marquette wing Olivier-Maxence Prosper has gotten some buzz from teams as a big 6-foot-8 body with a 7-foot-1 wingspan who can really slide his feet defensively and who grew by leaps and bounds as a shooter in his junior season. Teams really want to get their eyes on him through this cycle to see if he has a bit more ball skill than what he was able to show at Marquette due to Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro running the show on offense. By the way, Marquette was a big winner of the pre-draft cycle already, with neither Ighodaro (whom I will have as a top-40 player entering next season) and Kolek deciding to not enter their names.

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Players like UCLA’s Jaime Jaquez, Houston’s Marcus Sasser and Gonzaga’s Julian Strawther all have interest as potential late-first-round to mid-second-round names who could really impress over the next month and solidify their stock. Others like San Jose State’s Omari Moore, Penn State’s Seth Lundy and even Belmont wing Ben Sheppard are names teams have real interest in bringing in and learning more about as potential wings who can play on both sides of the floor. Any of those players could go from a solid two-way grade up to a guaranteed deal in the process. A lot will play out here in the coming months.

(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; photos: Michael Reaves, Wesley Hitt, Catherine Steenkeste, Ethan Miller / Getty Images)