At first blush, it's easy to back the Ravens here. They have the most indefensible quarterback in the NFL, an elite defense and home-field advantage.

The Ravens have also flourished against playoff-caliber teams this season. In 16 meaningful games, Baltimore went 10-3 against teams that finished above .500.

Yet, we can't discount the vast amount of playoff experience that Kansas City brings to the table. Since Mahomes became the full-time starter in 2018, Kansas City has never missed an AFC Championship Game.

Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid know what it takes to win in the playoffs, and they can make up for a lot of Kansas City's offensive issues. The Ravens haven't been to this playoff stage since the 2012 season, and Jackson has only appeared in five playoff games to date.

On paper, almost everything favors Baltimore, but games aren't played on paper. Expect the Chiefs to make things uncomfortably close, though the Ravens are the more complete team and should hold serve at home.

Kansas City stole one in Buffalo, but it escaped when the Bills missed a would-be game-tying 44-yard field goal. The Chiefs aren't getting that fortunate two weeks in a row.

Prediction: Baltimore 26, Kansas City 24

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