Analyzing the horses in the Preakness field: Favorites, contenders, and pretenders

Unlike Kentucky Derby week, the lead-up to the Preakness has been mercifully drama-free: no big scratches (updated: I spoke too soon), and (touch wood), so far, no horse injuries.

What the Preakness has that the Derby didn’t is Bob Baffert: 1/ST Racing, which owns Pimlico Race Course, didn’t follow Churchill Downs in banning the trainer two years ago, and he’ll have a horse on Saturday.

What the Preakness doesn’t have that the Derby did is…a lot of horses running. Even with the unusually high number of scratches, 18 horses vied for the roses two weeks ago. This Saturday, there will be only eight. And while some observers think that the Derby field is too big, there’s been grumbling on horse racing Twitter (generally a contrarian lot) that the Preakness field is too small, especially as Derby winner Mage is the only horse that will run in the first two legs of the Triple Crown.

That means that, after racing two weeks ago, Mage will face a field of fresh horses, and that means conversations about the format of the Triple Crown and what needs to be done to encourage more Derby starters to run in all three races. Should the races be shortened? Should there be more time between races? Do U.S. breeders need to focus more on stamina than on speed?

Traditionalists balk at the slightest mention of a change in the Triple Crown schedule when in fact, it wasn’t until fifty years ago that a horse won the Triple Crown as it’s currently configured; more than half of the horses that we recognize as Triple Crown winners won the series when it was significantly different from the series we know.

And if Mage wins the Preakness and goes on to win the Belmont, no one will care about or remember what horses he beat and how many horses he ran against.

Post time for the Preakness is 7:01 p.m. ET Saturday on NBC. Coverage will air from 1 – 4:30 p.m. on CNBC, with NBC broadcasting from 4:30 – 7:30 p.m. Streaming is also available on NBCSports.com, the NBC Sports app, and Peacock.

And now, let’s look at the horses, and once again, we’ll be looking at horses that have shown an affinity for off-tracks, as rain is in the forecast for Baltimore on Saturday; Accuweather notes that “a rain jacket may be needed during the race.”

1 — National Treasure

Odds: 4-1

Jockey: John R. Velazquez
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Record: 5-1-1-2

As a result of Churchill Down’s decree that no Bob Baffert-trained horse could earn Kentucky Derby qualifying points or race in Louisville, this horse started in Baffert’s barn, then was transferred to Baffert’s former assistant Tim Yakteen, and now he’s back with Baffert. One could charitably say that this isn’t the most accomplished Baffert horse to run for the Black-Eyed Susans: he’s won once, last September, and while he picks up a check in every race he runs and may well hit the board here, I’m passing.

2 — Chase the Chaos

Odds: 50-1

Jockey: Sheldon Russell
Trainer: Ed Moger, Jr.
Record: 8-3-2-1

This long shot cost $10,000 as a weanling and has earned $123,000, making good on the investment in him. While I suspect there’s a good story behind the horse and owners–and you’ve got to love the name, as his dam is Live the Moment–the horse has been hopelessly outclassed when running in top company. He’s run well on the synthetic surface of Golden Gate Fields, his home track, and raced just twice on dirt, finishing seventh by 16 lengths in the Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita Park. He did finish second on a muddy dirt track in his first race, so maybe include him if the track comes up wet? A 50-1 gelding from a lower-tier racing circuit does bring to mind Mine That Bird, winner of the 2009 Kentucky Derby…so no one could blame you for throwing a couple of bucks on him. And he’s a Pennsylvania-bred, the local Midlantic crowd may have a rooting and sporting interest.

3 — Mage

Odds: 8-5

Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Record: 4-2-1-0

Impressive and deserving winner of the Kentucky Derby, and while his light campaign–just three-lifetime races prior to the Derby–may have been a mark against him two weeks ago, it may be a strength now, as he’s not run a taxing schedule. One concern is that he’s a closer in a Preakness that isn’t exactly stacked with speed, so the pace may be against him. He’s also never run on an off track.

4 — Coffeewithchris

Odds: 20-1

Jockey: Jaime Rodriguez
Trainer: John E. Salzman, Jr.
Record: 12-3-3-2

It’s not often you see a horse that only cost $2,000 in a Grade 1 race, and you can bet that the locals will support this Maryland-bred underdog. Aside from his first start, last August at Colonial Downs in Virginia, he’s raced exclusively in Maryland and primarily at Laurel Park, and trainer and co-owner John Salzman Jr. is a long-time staple of Midlantic racing. He’s raced consistently and well, earning $225,600 in ungraded stakes races, and he might try to steal the race on the front end. He may not have the speed to win, but it will be a hell of a story if he does. A wet track will do him no favors.

5 — Red Route One

Odds: 10-1

Jockey: Joel Rosario
Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen
Record: 9-2-2-1

I won’t be surprised if he wins. I won’t be surprised if he loses. He’s got world-class connections in Winchell, Asmussen, and Rosario; he was competitive in two graded stakes races earlier this year before faltering in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby; his off-track record is inconsistent. He’s a closer that will need pace to run his best race, and he’s one that I will likely not bet to win but will include underneath in exotics (exactas and trifectas).

6 — Perform

Odds: 15-1

Jockey: Feargal Lynch
Trainer: Claude R. McGaughey III
Record: 7-2-1-1

Like Mage, Perform is sired by Good Magic, the runner-up to Justify in the 2018 Kentucky Derby. That may be his only advantage here: he lost five races, often badly, before finally breaking his maiden in March at Tampa Bay Downs, and in his first start as a winner, he won by a mere head in the ungraded Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel Park. Then again, he is trained by Shug McGaughey, a Hall-of-Fame trainer who doesn’t generally run horses where they don’t belong. McGaughey has never won the Preakness, and his horses don’t often run in it. Perform is intriguing at a price.

7 — Blazing Sevens

Odds: 6-1

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer: Chad C. Brown
Record: 6-2-0-2

If the rains come on Saturday, give this one a hard look. He won the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes in the fall over a sloppy track. He’s another sired by Good Magic, and while his last three races have been disappointing, he’s lost to some pretty good horses in them, and perhaps he can round into form at the right time.