Could 'Succession' co-star Alan Ruck or F. Murray Abraham and Michael Imperioli from 'The White Lotus' upset last year's winner?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2023 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Weekly Commentary (Updated Aug. 21, 2023): Supporting drama actor is one of three categories, HBO is guaranteed a trophy walking into the ceremony after nabbing all eight slots with “Succession” and “The White Lotus.”

Last year’s winner Matthew Macfadyen is the favorite to win after submitting the incredible “Tailgate Party” episode (which has Tom and Shiv having their blow-up on the balcony and is also Sarah Snook’s submission). Given the show’s ending, there would be something serendipitous about “Tom” being the only actor to have multiple Emmys.

His co-star Alan Ruck, basking in the glow of his first career nom, has opted to submit the same episode as Roy patriarch Logan Roy a.k.a. Brian Cox. With an impressive four-decade career in film and television, a journeyman performer such as Ruck could garner a pocket of support that could push him over the finish line. Of course, he’ll have votes pulled by his other nominated co-stars Alexander Skarsgård (an Emmy winner for “Big Little Lies”) and Nicholas Braun.

Of “The White Lotus” crew, veterans F. Murray Abraham and Michael Imperioli have the best shots to upset. Abraham, an Oscar winner for “Amadeus” (1984), is on his fourth Emmy nom but has yet to win. Imperioli, best known for his turn as Christopher Moltisanti on the classic HBO series “The Sopranos,” won this category in 2004. Theo James and Will Sharpe will have to enjoy the ride.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Primetime Emmy predictions in the major categories.

The rankings for the category are below.

The final Emmy voting rounds open on Aug. 17 at 9 a.m. PT and close on Aug. 28 at 10 p.m. PST. The 75th Emmy Awards are scheduled to air on Monday, Jan. 15, 2024, at 8 p.m. ET/ 5 p.m. PT. The Creative Arts ceremony will occur on Saturday, Jan. 6, and Sunday, Jan. 7. An edited version will air on FXX on Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024, at 8 p.m. ET. All events will take place at the Peacock Theater at LA Live.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Creative Arts predictions in all categories.

And the Nominees Are:

1. Matthew Macfadyen — “Succession” (HBO)
   Episode submission: “Tailgate Party”
2. F. Murray Abraham — “The White Lotus” (HBO)
   Episode submission: “Abductions”
3. Alan Ruck — “Succession” (HBO)
   Episode submission: “Rehearsal”
4. Michael Imperioli — “The White Lotus” (HBO)
   Episode submission: “That’s Amore”
5. Alexander Skarsgård — “Succession” (HBO)
   Episode submission: “Kill List”
6. Nicholas Braun — “Succession” (HBO)
   Episode submission: “America Decides”
7. Theo James — “The White Lotus” (HBO)
   Episode submission: “That’s Amore”
8. Will Sharpe — “The White Lotus” (HBO)
   Episode submission: “Arrivederci”

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Network)**

• Jeff Perry — “Alaska Daily” (ABC)
• Andre Braugher — “The Good Doctor” (ABC)
• Richard Schiff — “The Good Doctor” (ABC)
• Sam Reid — “Anne Rice’s Interview with the Vampire” (AMC)
• Harry Hamlin — “Anne Rice’s Mayfair Witches” (AMC)
• Jack Huston — “Anne Rice’s Mayfair Witches” (AMC)
• Jonathan Banks — “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
• Giancarlo Esposito — “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
• Pat Healy — “Better Call Saul” (AMC)
• Claes Bang — “Bad Sisters” (Apple TV+)
• Brian Gleeson— “Bad Sisters” (Apple TV+)
• Daryl McCormack — “Bad Sisters” (Apple TV+)
• Hank Azaria — “Hello Tomorrow!” (Apple TV+)
• Peter Mullan — “Liaison” (Apple TV+)
• Jack Lowden — “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)
• Stellan Skarsgård — “Andor” (Disney+)
• Kyle Sollder — “Andor” (Disney+)
• Carl Weathers — “The Mandalorian” (Disney+)
• Amar Chadha-Patel — “Willow” (Disney+)
• Tony Revolori — “Willow” (Disney+)
• John Lithgow — “The Old Man” (FX)
• Fabien Frankel — “House of the Dragon” (HBO)
• Rhys Ifans — “House of the Dragon” (HBO)
• Matt Smith — “House of the Dragon” (HBO)
• Steve Toussaint — “House of the Dragon” (HBO)
• Dan Levy — “The Idol” (HBO)
• Troye Sivan — “The Idol” (HBO)
• Ken Leung — “Industry” (HBO)
• Chris Chalk — “Perry Mason” (HBO)
• Shea Whigham — “Perry Mason” (HBO)
• Matthew Macfadyen — “Succession” (HBO)
• Nicholas Braun — “Succession” (HBO)
• Alan Ruck — “Succession” (HBO)
• Alexander Skarsgård — “Succession” (HBO)
• Ed Harris — “Westworld” (HBO)
• James Marsden — “Westworld” (HBO)
• Jeffrey Wright — “Westworld” (HBO)
• F. Murray Abraham — “The White Lotus” (HBO)
• Tom Hollander — “The White Lotus” (HBO)
• Michael Imperioli — “The White Lotus” (HBO)
• Theo James — “The White Lotus” (HBO)
• Will Sharpe — “The White Lotus” (HBO)
• Leo Woodall — “The White Lotus” (HBO)
• O-T Fagbenle — “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
• Max Minghella — “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
• Bradley Whitford — “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
• Vincent D’Onofrio — “Godfather of Harlem” (MGM+)
• Aneurin Barnard – “1899” (Netflix)
• Anton Lesser – “1899” (Netflix)
• Jonathan Pryce — “The Crown” (Netflix)
• Jonny Lee Miller — “The Crown” (Netflix)
• Ato Essandoh — “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
• David Gyasi — “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
• Rory Kinnear — “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
• Rufus Sewell — “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
• Boyd Holbrook — “The Sandman” (Netflix)
• Ed Speleers — “You” (Netflix)
• Timothy Dalton — “1923” (Paramount+)
• Brandon Sklenar — “1923” (Paramount+)
• Michael Emerson — “Evil” (Paramount+)
• Andre Braugher — “The Good Fight” (Paramount+)
• John Slattery — “The Good Fight” (Paramount+)
• Charles Dance — “Rabbit Hole” (Paramount+)
• Jonathan Frakes — “Star Trek: Picard” (Paramount+)
• Michael Dorn — “Star Trek: Picard” (Paramount+)
• LeVar Burton — “Star Trek: Picard” (Paramount+)
• Brent Spiner — “Star Trek: Picard” (Paramount+)
• Ed Speleers — “Star Trek: Picard” (Paramount+)
• Todd Stashwick — “Star Trek: Picard” (Paramount+)
• Wes Bentley — “Yellowstone” (Paramount Network)
• Gil Birmingham — “Yellowstone” (Paramount Network)
• Luke Grimes — “Yellowstone” (Paramount Network)
• Cole Hauser — “Yellowstone” (Paramount Network)
• Mo Brings Plenty — “Yellowstone” (Paramount Network)
• Adrian Holmes — “Bel-Air” (Peacock)
• Olly Sholotan — “Bel-Air” (Peacock)
• Jensen Ackles — “The Boys” (Prime Video)
• Laz Alonso — “The Boys” (Prime Video)
• Tomer Capone — “The Boys” (Prime Video)
• Chase Crawford — “The Boys” (Prime Video)
• Jessie T. Usher — “The Boys” (Prime Video)
• Stanley Tucci — “Citadel” (Prime Video)
• Robert Aramayo — “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” (Prime Video)
• Owain Arthur — “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” (Prime Video)
• Ismael Cruz Córdova — “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” (Prime Video)
• Charlie Vickers — “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” (Prime Video)
• Josh Charles — “The Power” (Prime Video)
• Toheeb Jimoh — “The Power” (Prime Video)
• John Leguizamo — “The Power” (Prime Video)
• Taylor Kitsch — “The Terminal List” (Prime Video)
• John Leguizamo — “Waco: The Aftermath” (Showtime)
• Kevin Alves — “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
• Warren Kole — “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
• Steven Krueger — “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
• Elijah Wood — “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
• Bjorgvin Arnarson — “Chucky” (Syfy)
• Devon Sawa — “Chucky” (Syfy)
• J Alphonse Nicholson — “P Valley” (Starz)

** This list or category submission is not yet complete or confirmed and is subject to change.

2022 category winner: Matthew Macfadyen, “Succession” (HBO) — Season 3

Emmy Awards Predictions Categories

DRAMA SERIES | COMEDY SERIES | LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES | TV MOVIE | LEAD ACTOR (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTOR (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | LEAD ACTRESS (DRAMA) | LEAD ACTRESS (COMEDY) | LEAD ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTOR (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY) | SUPPORTING ACTRESS (LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | TALK SERIES | SCRIPTED VARIETY | GAME SHOW | DIRECTING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | WRITING (DRAMA, COMEDY, LIMITED/TV MOVIE) | REALITY (COMPETITION, STRUCTURED, UNSTRUCTURED, HOST)

Creative Arts and Other Emmy Categories

GUEST ACTOR (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) | GUEST ACTOR (COMEDY) | GUEST ACTRESS (COMEDY) | VOICE-OVER | SHORT FORM | DOCUMENTARY | MUSIC | ANIMATED | OTHER CATEGORIES

About the Primetime Emmy Awards

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes – Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between Jun. 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans, and executives.