Fantasy baseball mailbag: Gunnar Henderson is droppable, buying post-hype Josh Lowe and more
James Holden Thanks for the questions and sorry I can’t get to all of them. Some I’m unable to answer or have addressed in recent columns on early Statcast hitters and pitchers of note (a new one will be coming soon). Here are some of the rest.
Has your outlook for Gunnar Henderson changed much based on his slow start? Curious about your thoughts for both this year and dynasty. — David H.
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I did not have any Henderson shares. I think rookies are a gamble and I don’t want to pay to gamble when, like Henderson, the March ADP is too high. His expected batting average is .200, which is bottom five percent. We all know his actual average is terrible. His contact-only numbers are actually above average but we’re staring down the barrel of a 30.7% K%. We thought he’d at least be using that speed on the bases, but he has one steal. The past seven games, his strikeout rate is 26.1%. If that holds and his BABIP normalizes, he could hit .260 like last year. But where is he going to help you? The power is not there yet and he’s not going to run. So even with the expected rebound, he’s droppable in 12-team mixed leagues. As for dynasty, he’s definitely a hold. He should eventually be a high OBP, 30-homer hitter. There’s just too much real-life draft capital here and he’s in MLB at a very young age.
Who would you pick between Lars Nootbaar and Josh Lowe? Both players with inconsistent PT, but showing potential. — Jonathan M.
Definitely Josh Lowe. Nootbaar is valuable in OBP leagues but Lowe is a very attractive combo player with the power and speed. He’s more like 20/30, where Nootbaar is maybe 15/15 if we squint. Lowe’s expected average and slugging are much better. His strikeout rate is way down (better than average now at 22.7%). Lowe is producing like a player who can win your league and illustrates again that when everyone gives up on a top prospect with top draft pedigree who still has a plausible path to playing time, we should take a late flyer — it’s all upside.
How do you rank all of these wonderful rookie pitchers this season? Which are 15-team, 12-team and 10-team viable? I’m talking about Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, Bryce Miller, Mason Miller, Brandon Pfaadt, Louie Varland, Gavin Stone, Taj Bradley…(did I miss any?) — Bobby O.
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Nice list. We thought Bradley was the best of them. But he was sent back to Triple-A to adjust to a five-man rotation and has gotten pounded after shining in MLB. No idea when Bradley will be back but pitching badly in MiLB is delaying the timetable. Stone is on a great team in a great pitching environment but obviously was eviscerated his first start and we’re not sure when we’re going to see him again. Bibee was a fifth-round pick so his emergence isn’t that shocking but still very surprising and we want to be skeptical. His Statcast page is a thing of beauty. He’s the No. 1 add here.
Logan Allen’s Statcast page is the polar opposite of Bibee. I’d advise avoiding him. Bryce Miller was being pounded in Double-A. He has great RPMs. His Statcast numbers are good. He’s a top prospect. He’s No. 2 here. I need an almost perfect resume to bet on a fifth-round pick sight unseen in MLB — not seeing that from Pfaadt. Mason Miller has amazing stuff but I feel like he’s already on an innings count so I can’t imagine how he can sustain merely pitching much longer. Varland is on the older side, was never a prospect, was barely drafted. I can forget about these things with proof they don’t matter but right now they are operational for assessing Varland for me. I would not even consider him.
What is going on with Andrés Giménez? — Ryan T.
The Athletic’s John Laghezza and I talked about him extensively on the latest Breakfast Table podcast (the first 12 minutes are free, monthly membership is a cup of coffee). We both thought he was going to be a breakout player, well as much as you can breakout after starting the All-Star game. But it’s been a disaster. His Statcast page is downright gross. He’s down nearly 100 points in WOBA — interestingly, to 2021 levels. So maybe 2022 was a fluke. His steals are a saving grace but he only has six. He’s droppable in 15-team formats and should be dropped in 12-team mixed.
Ryan Mountcastle — buy, sell, hold? — Evan G.
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Mountcastle was my guy in the preseason, and in our magazine I said Statcast was screaming at you to buy because he was so unlucky in 2022. What’s happened in 2023? Even worse luck. His expected average is .309. His expected slugging is .622. That walk rate (3.2%) is sad and is brutal in leagues that count OBP. But the K% is down and his contact quality is elite. He’s a buy for me but he has so many RBI that he’s going to be tough to trade for, though I would expect him to be a Top 30 hitter going forward in standard Roto. So you can pay full perceived value and come out ahead, I believe.
Who are the best non-save relievers for ratios and strikeouts? — Barry F.
Bryan Abreu (1.56 ERA and 43.3% Ks), Yennier Cano (38.8% Ks, 0% BBs, 0.00 ERA), Genesis Cabrera (38.5% Ks, 91st percentile xERA/xwOBA), Erik Swanson (35% Ks, 1.62 actual ERA, elite Statcast), Ron Marinaccio (35% Ks, 1.76 ERA, elite Statcast). These guys are among the non-closers who should be active in place of about 20% of the mixed-league starting pitching pool.
Is Starling Marte cooked ? What changes do you see from last year, and is patience a prize here? — Jairo Z.
He’s 34 but was very good at 33. His K% is down. His walks are up. His BABIP is about 100 points under his career average. But his sprint speed is now well below average. He has no bolts. His home-to-first time, which is most correlated to steals, we’re told, is down three ticks from his peak. His defense has absolutely cratered. Even his expected average is .245 — terrible. Given his age, I’d say it’s likely that he’s washed. But his very good age 33 performance pulls up the chance that he’s not to about 40%. I have no idea how he has nine steals with those Statcast speed numbers (36th percentile). Those are likely to regress downward.
Is Esteury Ruiz worth the add if it means dropping Teoscar Hernandez? — Charlie P.
Ruiz is an old-fashioned rabbit who does nothing else of value. His walk rate of 2.7% is unconscionably low. He’s way more Judy than Punch, basically playing Wiffle Ball with his exit velocity. However, he has 16 steals and 98th percentile sprint speed — his home-to-first is just 4.31, though, which is barely better than Marte. So maybe sprint speed is the better corollary for steals? By the way, according to TGFantasyBaseball, Ruiz has earned $19 in 12-team mixed leagues, which makes him the 18th MLB outfielder in value. Here’s where I remind you, however, that this is somewhat illusory because your fantasy baseball league is a closed market and it’s hard to find teams that will trade for steals no matter what they’re worth. They are the worst thing to own in surplus. But if you need those steals, yes, you have to add him. Hernandez is earning $4 at the moment, for comparison. But he’s been very unlucky and his Statcast contact numbers are good. I can’t recommend dropping him, generally, though you may be in a situation where that’s best for you. Ruiz is stealing 60-to-80 bases.
(Top photo: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports)