It was a down year for the Giants’ system, with a number of players suffering injuries or just not playing well, including some of their higher-profile prospects. A number of first-round misses — the four B’s, Joey Bart, Hunter Bishop, Patrick Bailey, and Will Bednar — are holding the system back, although some later picks and emerging international free agents keep the system out of the bottom tier.

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The Ranking

1. Kyle Harrison, LHP (Top 100 ranking: No. 12)

Age (as of July 1): 21 | 6-2 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 85 in 2020

Harrison ranked second in minor-league baseball in strikeouts in 2022, a year after he finished ninth while throwing just 98 innings on the season, and he does it with huge stuff and deception and pretty good feel. He’s 92-94 mph, touching 97, with a plus slider at 80-82, showing good shape to the pitch, with the depth of a curveball but the sharpness of a power slider. He has a changeup that flashes average with good bottom, but uses his slider in changeup counts even to right-handers. Harrison has a very deceptive delivery, with a low three-quarter slot and an arm action that keeps the ball behind his body for a long time, although he struggles with timing and his arm can be late relative to his front leg, a potential red flag for future injuries. If he stays healthy, which he has so far in pro ball, this is No. 1 starter stuff, and while it’s not Chris Sale’s body or arm swing, there are definitely enough similarities to think that’s Harrison’s ceiling.

2. Marco Luciano, SS (No. 21)

Age: 21 | 6-2 | 178 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2018

Luciano’s 2022 season in High A was a disappointment, as a lower back strain cost him about half of the year, and when he came back in mid-August he wasn’t the same hitter. He was off to a good start before the injury, hitting .288/.360/.507 before he hit the injured list, so there’s reason to remain optimistic about his long-term upside, where he projects to a plus hit tool with plus power if it all comes together. He even showed a solid approach and continued to keep his contact rate up, even after the injury. Luciano is a physical kid, listed at 6-2 and a laughable 178 pounds, even though he’s a lot bigger and stronger than that now, and he hits the ball extremely hard when he squares it up, giving him that elite offensive upside where he could hit .300 and still get to 30 homers. He’s still playing shortstop but that’s always been unlikely, and I think it’s becoming even less so as he moves up the ladder; he should move to third base or first, but there’s a decent chance he’s a corner outfielder. The bat will still play there, or anywhere, although the positional question creates a wide range in his expected outcomes. At third, he might be a top 5-10 player in baseball. In the outfield, he might just be a star.

3. Luis Matos, OF (just-missed list)

Age: 21 | 5-11 | 160 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2018

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Matos had a disastrous season all around, hitting .211/.275/.344 in 91 games in High A and missing time with a quad injury that lingered much of the summer, then scuffling in the AFL (.233/.280/.361) and looking like a shell of his old self. He’s still just 20 and tooled out, so it’s quite possible, even likely, that this is all a function of the injury and him never feeling 100 percent throughout the season. He didn’t give up on at-bats or start hacking, and his strikeout rate on the season was just 16 percent; he just didn’t hit the ball as hard as he did in 2021. He’s a plus power guy with plus defense in center when he’s 100 percent, with some concerns about his pitch recognition, but none of that was evident in 2022. I’m inclined to write it off as injury combined with perhaps some frustration that he wasn’t performing. He’ll play at 21 this year and even if the Giants return him to High A, he won’t be old for the level.

4. Aeverson Arteaga, SS

Age: 20 | 6-1 | 170 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2019

Arteaga would have been a top 100 guy if he’d made a bit more contact last year. He tied Angels catcher Edgar Quero for the Cal League lead in doubles with 35 even as one of the league’s youngest regulars, and tied for 11th in homers, while playing above-average defense at shortstop. It’s a powerful swing with bat speed and big hip rotation, maybe a little too rotational to keep his contact rate up where it should be, but it’s also the reason his power is real at 19 and why more of those doubles are likely to become homers over time. The whiffs give him less probability than most guys on the top 100, but he has similar upside as a potential 20-homer shortstop with value on defense.

5. Grant McCray, OF

Age: 22 | 6-2 | 190 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 87 in 2019

McCray is one of the best pure athletes in the Giants’ system, and the power projection he’d had as an amateur when the Giants drafted him in the third round in 2019 became game power in 2022, as he hit 23 homers, mostly in Low A. He struck out 30 percent of the time between the two levels, however, in part because he was selling out for extra power even though he didn’t really need to do so. He’s a plus runner and very twitchy, the kind of athlete who can make a lot of adjustments, so even with the huge swing and miss he’s still one of the Giants’ best prospects. If he hits his ceiling, it’s plus defense in center with power, speed, and enough hard contact to overcome the lower contact rate.

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6. Casey Schmitt, 3B

Age: 24 | 6-2 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 49 in 2020

Schmitt is a plus defender at third with a rifle of an arm, unsurprising for a former two-way player who’d work in the low 90s off the mound. He’s more power than hit, able to hit a fastball but with more difficulty with offspeed stuff, even in the zone, and he struggles to adjust when he’s behind in the count. His 2022 season was a big improvement over his disappointing 2021, enough to put him back on track to becoming a big-league regular, a .300 OBP hitter with 20 or so homers and 5-10 runs saved a year on defense.

7. Carson Whisenhunt, LHP

Age: 22 | 6-3 | 209 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 66 in 2022

Whisenhunt missed his entire junior year after the NCAA suspended him for a positive drug test. He’s a potential starter who’s mostly 92-93 mph with a plus changeup that might end up a 70, lacking feel to spin the ball for an average breaker that would give him a chance to pitch more toward the top of a rotation. He has a good delivery he can repeat and should have average or better command. I think he’s a third or fourth starter, although a better breaking ball — and he did flash a decent, if not exactly average, curve on the Cape before the draft — would give him more ceiling.

8. Vaun Brown, OF

Age: 25 | 6-1 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 296 in 2021

Brown was their 10th-round pick in 2021 and blew up the low minors last year as a 24-year-old who was much too old for the levels, then got hurt in his first game in Double A in August. He’s an 80 runner with plus power, more power than hit now with too much swing and miss in his game, striking out more than a quarter of the time in Low A and in High A. He’s got to make adjustments against better stuff, especially offspeed. He’s a center fielder now who could stay there with his speed but has to improve his reads. He’s very strong and muscular, with explosive running speed and quick-twitch muscle, but this is basically a bet that an older hitter with two plus tools can figure out the bat enough to be more than a fifth outfielder. He has starter upside, but the most likely outcome is that he’s a fourth outfielder/pinch runner.

9. Reggie Crawford, LHP

Age: 23 | 6-4 | 235 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 30 in 2022

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Crawford was the Giants’ first-round pick in 2022, a power-armed and very athletic left-hander who missed the whole spring after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He’d been up to 99 mph with a hard slider with fringy break, throwing just 20 1/3 innings between the springs at UConn and summer ball during his entire college career. He’s also a hitter, playing first base, a power-over-hit guy who struggled with any pitch that bent or broke. The Giants are talking about him as a two-way guy which seems ridiculous for someone who needs a ton of development in both areas. Just get him healthy and on the mound and develop him as a pitcher.

10. Mason Black, RHP

Age: 23 | 6-3 | 230 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 85 in 2021

Black made huge progress last year as a pitcher to go from a probable reliever to a probable starter, thanks to small changes to the delivery and some improvement over the season in his changeup. He can sit 94-97 mph at his best with good riding life, a plus slider, and a fringy changeup that is already better than it was a year ago. He can drift down in his release point and needs to hold that close to three-quarters to keep lefties at bay, and he’ll have to work to hold his velocity through his second full season. I think he’s more stuff than command, probably a fourth starter in the end even with the two power pitches.

11. Patrick Bailey, C

Age: 24 | 6-1 | 210 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 13 in 2020

Bailey is a switch-hitting catcher with above-average defense who whacked right-handed pitching last year for a .252/.370/.481 line, enough to see him as the strong side of a platoon, although the Giants were certainly hoping for more when they took him with the 13th pick in 2020. His 2021 season was ruined by back trouble, and that popped up again in 2022, limiting him to 83 games as the Giants gave him a bunch of days off during the year. The back injury affects his floor because without that he’d be at least a clear part-time big leaguer. If he hits lefties better, either through improvement from the right side or perhaps giving up switch-hitting, then he’d project as a low batting average regular with power and defense.

12. Carson Seymour, RHP

Age: 24 | 6-6 | 260 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 172 in 2021

The Giants acquired Seymour in the trade that sent Darin Ruf to the Mets in July, taking a flier on his upside with two plus pitches. He’s 6-foot-6, 260 pounds, and sits 94-96 mph, touching 98, with a power slider that’s up to 91, and after a collegiate career that took him from Dartmouth to Kansas State but never included much control, he walked just 6.7 percent of batters at three stops in A ball last year. He’s 24 now but there’s no need for more stuff or other projection, and if this newfound control is sustainable, the Giants got themselves a future starter who could end up in the top three spots of a big-league rotation.

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13. Landen Roupp, RHP

Age: 24 | 6-2 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 356 in 2021

A senior sign out of UNC Wilmington in the 12th round in 2021, Roupp ripped through both levels of A ball and finished with five decent starts in Double A, striking out 35 percent of batters he faced on the year. He’s a sinker/slurve guy, working at 93-95 mph with very high spin on the breaking ball, and comes from a lower release height that adds to his deception. He does have a power changeup with hard tumbling action, although he barely uses it. Roupp works out of the strike zone more often than most starters do, relying on deception to get hitters to expand and chase, so while he didn’t walk many hitters in A ball he’s going to see that walk rate rise as he moves up. With better command and control, he could be a fourth starter.

14. Heliot Ramos, OF

Age: 23| 6-1 | 188 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 19 in 2017

Ramos’s season was inexplicable — he returned to Triple A and hit much worse the second time around, with a .227/.305/.349 line there, as his approach totally unraveled. He would swing at pitches out of the zone even when ahead in the count, actually faring worse when ahead than behind, which is hard to fathom. He may have been frustrated that he wasn’t in the big leagues, although he did get a few short call-ups, but that’s hardly a good excuse. He’s still a solid-average runner with plus raw power, mixing time between center and right last year but projecting to right field in the majors. At this point, he’s in prospect purgatory, with a track record and tools that contradict the awful performance in 2022.

15. Eric Silva, RHP

Age: 20 | 6-1 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 115 in 2021

Silva’s pro debut, outside of the one inning he pitched in 2021 after the Giants drafted him in the fourth round, wasn’t great on the surface, with a 5.88 ERA and too many walks and homers, but there’s still mid-rotation starter upside here given the stuff. He sits 94-95 mph, touching 97, with a strong vertical attack angle, while his secondary stuff is more projection than present now and he wore down some as the season went on, with August by far his worst month of the year. He’s only around six feet tall and not super physical, so he doesn’t have the traditional durable build, but the arm works and the fastball will really play in any role.

16. Adrian Sugastey, C

Age: 20 | 6-1 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2019

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Sugastey’s a strong catch-and-throw guy who makes contact but hasn’t developed enough strength to turn that into enough hits to profile as a backup just yet, although that’s a reasonable projection for him going forward. The Panamanian backstop has a plus arm and great catcher’s build, working well with pitching staffs so far in pro ball, with an aggressive approach and good plate coverage. He looks like he should be strong enough to drive the ball with some authority, but the ball doesn’t come off the bat like that, and obviously there’s a chance it never will. I like him as a backup with a 5-10 percent chance to become a regular.

17. Will Bednar, RHP

Age: 22 | 6-2 | 230 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 14 in 2021

It wasn’t the full-season debut the Giants had hoped for from their 2021 first-rounder, as Bednar was wild early, hitting 12 batters in 43 innings along with 22 walks, and then was shut down in mid-June with a lower back strain that recurred when he tried to pitch in the AFL. He’s still got a plus slider and solid-average fastball, but he’s more likely to go to the bullpen at this point — which wasn’t entirely unexpected on draft day.

18. Ryan Reckley, SS

Age: 18 | 5-10 | 160 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
International signing in 2022

The Bahamian Reckley signed in January 2022 for $2.2 million, but his pro debut in the DSL was cut short when he took a knee to his back and suffered small fractures to two vertebrae. He’s not very physical but he’s a plus runner and twitchy with good bat speed and a good eye at the plate, the last of which was about the only thing he did show before his injury. It’s all projection at this point once he’s fully healthy.

19. Trevor McDonald, RHP

Age: 22 | 6-2 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 326 in 2019

McDonald started the year in the bullpen in Low A, then moved to the rotation midway through the season, still showing big stuff but walking far more guys as a starter (14 percent) than as a reliever (6 percent). The Giants helped him shorten up his arm swing in back, which should make it easier for him to repeat the delivery for strikes, and he’s still 94-95 mph with a slurvy breaking ball that’s improved a bit from 2021. He has some starter ingredients but the poor control makes it more likely he ends up in relief.

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20. Cole Waites, RHP

Age: 25 | 6-3 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 536 in 2019

Waites has two of the best pitches in the minors by pitch quality, working 95-98 mph with good spin and life along with a plus slider, with some deception added by the divergent spin directions of the two pitches. He’s got effort to the delivery and strikes might be a problem, but teams love the pure stuff here and he could be a high-leverage reliever who misses bats with the slider and gets weak contact with the heater.

Others of note

Lefty Nick Zwack came over with Seymour in the Darin Ruf trade, with more command but less stuff, a possible fifth starter if he can limit hard contact as he moves up the ladder … Outfielder Jairo Pomares hits the ball hard for potential 25-homer power, but he’s a hacker who’s made no improvements in his selectivity or pitch recognition, punching out in nearly a third of his plate appearances last year while playing exclusively in left field … Ryan Murphy hurt his elbow and then had back trouble, making just two starts after June 22. He’s a command/control guy with four pitches, nothing better than average, who could project as a fifth starter if he can hold up … Lefty Nick Swiney has seen his velocity back up as a starter in pro ball when healthy, but has the changeup and curveball to move to the bullpen and find a role there … Lefty Seth Lonsway gave up a ton of hard contact as a starter but was much better in relief, with an out pitch in his curveball that neutralizes left-handed batters … Right-hander Randy Rodriguez didn’t follow up his huge 2021 campaign, and his issues with left-handers continued, with a .265/.417/.436 line from them that I think should end any talk of him starting. He’s mid-90s with deception from a cross-body delivery that makes right-handed hitters’ job very tough … Right-hander RJ Dabovich has a plus fastball/average slider and dominated Double A but walked 20 in 24 innings after a promotion to Triple A, very out of character for him. He could still end up a solid middle reliever … Erik Miller came over from Philly in a minor trade this offseason; he’s a lefty with two above-average to plus pitches in a low to mid-90s fastball with good ride and a tight slider, but he’s had arm trouble for the last two years and couldn’t hold that velocity through all of 2022.

2023 impact

Outside of maybe a bullpen role for Waites or Dabovich, there isn’t much room on the Opening Day roster for any prospects. I think Harrison debuts this year, and perhaps Ramos rights the ship at Triple A and earns another chance.

The fallen

The 10th pick in 2019, Hunter Bishop simply has not hit or stayed healthy since he was drafted, with a .235/.320/.406 line in 85 games last year in High A as a 24-year-old. He’s the only player drafted in the top 12 picks that year who hasn’t made the majors; players drafted right behind him include Corbin Carroll, Alek Manoah, and Brett Baty.

Sleeper

Arteaga was my pick last year, and since I don’t reuse names for sleeper prospects, I’ll go with Mason Black.

(Photo of Kyle Harrison: Daniel Shirey / MLB Photos via Getty Images)