Lakers-Grizzlies preview and prediction: Defending Anthony Davis and Ja Morant, X-factors

The last time the Lakers were in the playoffs, they were the No. 7 seed, facing a relatively inexperienced Phoenix Suns group in the 2021 first round.

Los Angeles led that series 2-1 and was hanging around in a competitive Game 4 when Anthony Davis went down with a left groin strain late in the first half. The Lakers lost Game 4 by eight points, were blown out in Game 5 by 30 and were beaten soundly again in Game 6, making a late comeback to lose by 13. Their top-heavy roster couldn’t withstand the loss of Davis.

The then-defending NBA champs entered that series against Phoenix as the favorites. They 2022-23 Lakers enter their series against Memphis as slight underdogs. In the aggregate, Memphis has been the Western Conference’s second-best team over the past two seasons. The Grizzlies have an All-NBA guard in Ja Morant, the Defensive Player of the Year favorite in Jaren Jackson Jr., one of the best coaches in the league in Taylor Jenkins and a deep, tough supporting cast led by Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks and Tyus Jones. But they’re also missing two key pieces in starting center Steven Adams and backup center Brandon Clarke.

The Lakers, meanwhile, enter healthy for basically the first time all season. LeBron James and Davis have yet to lose a playoff series in which they’re both healthy. The challenge, obviously, is keeping them healthy. This is arguably the best supporting cast the Lakers have had since their 2019-20 championship season. They’re on the easier side of the West bracket and are much better than the typical No. 7 seed. This group, if together for a full season, would’ve likely been battling Sacramento and Phoenix for home-court advantage — even with the same injuries. The door is open to make a deep postseason run.

Record-wise, the Lakers and the Grizzlies have been the two best teams in the West since the trade deadline. They’re both defensive-minded, led by one perimeter and one interior star, and love to live in the paint. As Davis said, this is going to be a “fun, interesting series.” Let’s dive into it.

Series schedule

Here’s the schedule for Grizzlies-Lakers:
— Jovan Buha (@jovanbuha) April 12, 2023

Here are the statistical profiles of the two teams:

Season stats

Lakers	Grizzlies
Offensive rating	113.9 (19th)	114.7 (11th)
Defensive rating	113.2 (12th)	110.7 (3rd)
Net rating	0.7 (16th)	4.0 (4th)
eFG%	54.2 (18th)	54.0 (21st)
Rebound %	50.5 (10th)	50.7 (8th)
Assist %	58.9 (20th)	59.6 (19th)
Turnover %	13.7 (11th)	13.3 (6th - T)
Pace	101.92 (4th)	101.5 (8th)

And here is the season-series breakdown:

Season series stats

Lakers	Grizzlies
Wins	2	1
Offensive rating	106.5	107.5
Defensive rating	107.5	106.5
Net rating	-1	1
eFG%	49.6	46.3
Rebound %	51.1	48.9
Assist %	62.4	51.5
Turnover %	15.8	8.7
Pace	107.17	107.17

Lakers question: How do they slow down Ja Morant?

The Lakers are going to try to force the ball out of Morant’s hands as much as possible. They saw what happens when they don’t during Morant’s 39-point explosion against them on Feb. 28. Morant’s 28-point third quarter was an offensive masterpiece. He eviscerated the Lakers’ drop coverages.

Similar to their defense on Anthony Edwards in the Minnesota Play-In game, the Lakers are going to have to play higher up on ball screens, potentially switching, depending on the matchup. They’ll also mix in some blitzing and trapping to challenge Morant’s teammates to try to beat them.

Los Angeles’ best approach is to go under pick-and-rolls against Morant, inviting him to shoot pull-up 3s. Morant is shooting 29.8 percent on those shots this season, including shooting 0 of 7 against the Lakers. In this clip, Austin Reaves, who will likely start on Morant, goes under and dares him to shoot. Morant misses.

Morant’s floater game can exploit the Lakers’ normal drop coverages, as he did during the regular season. He is too quick and explosive to defend in that manner. The Lakers can’t give him a runway to the paint.

Even if the Lakers are able to somehow lock onto Morant in the half court, he remains one of the league’s most dangerous players in transition, where he’s able to use his top-end speed to blow by defenders and either score at the rim or find his running mates.

This is Morant off a made basket. He gets to the rim in five seconds against a semi-set defense and finishes through contact against one of the game’s best rim protectors in Davis.

Morant cooked Dennis Schröder in the second matchup and is probably just too dynamic and athletic for him. The Lakers need to deploy size against Morant — Reaves, Jarred Vanderbilt and possibly Troy Brown Jr. That’s their best avenue to disrupting Morant’s rhythm aside from playing off him and dictating that he shoots pull-up jumpers.

If Morant is the best player in this series, the Lakers will lose. If he’s the second best, it’ll be a close series. If he’s the third-best — with the assumption that James and Davis are the two best in this scenario — the Lakers have solid odds of advancing.

Grizzlies question: Will they double-team Davis?

The Grizzlies are likely to slot Brooks on James, Xavier Tillman Sr. on Davis, Jackson on Vanderbilt (so he can roam), Morant on D’Angelo Russell and Bane on Reaves.

Across the two matchups he played in, Davis averaged 29.0 points on 55.6 percent shooting, 20.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks. He also averaged 11.0 free throw attempts per game — a sign of his ability to impose his will in this matchup.

The Lakers need the engaged, aggressive version of Davis. There have been too many stretches this season in which the Lakers either ignore Davis offensively or allow a defense to take him out with double- and triple-teaming. That’s on multiple parties — Darvin Ham, Davis and the Lakers’ guards. But it’s an issue the Lakers need to address before Game 1.

Davis can’t settle for jumpers against the Grizzlies, which is sometimes his default tactic when facing a more physical defender. The 6-foot-7, 245-pound Tillman is a tree trunk, and his low center of gravity will at times dislodge Davis from post-up positioning.

Davis can counter Memphis’ aggression by relentlessly attacking the rim and putting the Grizzlies on their heels. Here, with Tillman fronting him, Davis catches, plows through Jackson (drawing a blocking foul on him) and easily scores.

Davis will feast in the interior at any moment Tillman and Jackson are off the floor. Even when they’re on, they’re going to have a difficult time matching Davis’ size and physicality.

Grizzlies lineups without Adams and Clarke are struggling to offensive rebound (36th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass) and get to the free-throw line (16th percentile free-throw rate). They’re also susceptible to opponents’ offensive rebounding against them (33rd percentile), which is an area Davis and the Lakers can control.

Memphis didn’t double Davis during the regular-season matchups, but the Grizzlies did heavily shade over and show multiple bodies in the paint. Ham addressed some of the Lakers’ shortcomings in countering teams doubling Davis after their Play-In win over Minnesota.

“We’ve got to be able to move him around, and that falls on my staff and I because, in the isolation, he’s going to get double-teamed,” Ham said. “So, trying to get him in more pick-and-rolls, more second shot actions, move him to different areas on the floor. Not so much on the side. Maybe more in the middle. There’s a plethora of things we can do that we have in our treasure chest that we can try to allow the game to be a little easier and force the defense into compromising positions.”

Davis also shared insight Tuesday into the Memphis matchup.

“I think in our matchup with Memphis the other day, they didn’t double,” Davis said. “Usually Steven Adams, he guards me, and then Xavier Tillman, he kinda guarded me straight-up, so I’m not sure what their plan is. I didn’t see many double-teams against Memphis.”

Memphis’ doubling — and how the Lakers counter — will be an interesting subplot in the chess match between Ham and Jenkins.

Lakers’ X-factor: Austin Reaves

Multiple Lakers qualify for this distinction, including Rui Hachimura, Vanderbilt and Schröder. But Reaves has been the team’s third-best player this season, and the Lakers need him to play at his recent level during this series.

Reaves will likely be the first Laker to defend Morant — it’s between him and Vanderbilt — and when he’s not defending Morant, he’ll be guarding Bane, Luke Kennard and/or Jones. He’s going to match up against the Grizzlies’ No. 1 or No. 2 offensive options for most of the series.

Reaves has become elite at drawing fouls, and his getting Brooks and Bane — or even Jackson, who will try to block any Reaves shot within arm’s reach — into foul trouble could be a pivotal wrinkle.

As Tuesday’s Play-In matchup showed, the Lakers’ offense has its lulls. Reaves is the type of sparkplug who can break them out of those, as he did during crucial stretches of the first half. Watch Reaves attack Memphis’ transition defense and set up an open dunk for Wenyen Gabriel. These are the types of momentum-swinging plays the Lakers need from him.

The Lakers need someone to push Bane for fifth-best player in the series status. Reaves is the top candidate to do so. (Russell, of course, is the other.)

Grizzlies’ X-factor: Jaren Jackson Jr.

Jackson might be too good to be considered an X-factor. He’s a budding star — one who’s played much better over the past six weeks or so. But without Adams and Clarke, his importance grows substantially. Jackson is possibly the most vital Grizzlies player in this series.

Jackson has played much better since Clarke’s absence, taking on a larger role in the offense. He’s averaging 23.5 points on 53.2 percent shooting and 39.3 percent 3-point shooting since March 5. That’s All-NBA-level production.

On a per-minute basis, Jackson is far and away the best defender in basketball. His well-documented issue is that he fouls far too much. Jackson racked up exactly five fouls in all three games against L.A. this season. That probably cost the Grizzlies the most recent matchup, with Jackson having to be benched for part of the fourth quarter.

Vanderbilt gives the Grizzlies a spot to hide Jackson. He’ll leave him alone in the corners — and he’s quick enough and long enough to recover if Vanderbilt cuts — and rove as the game’s most intimidating help defender. For that reason, this might be a huge series for Hachimura, who can make Jackson pay by cutting into the middle of the floor and rising up for midrange jumpers. The Lakers could also downsize, with a trio of Reaves, Russell and Schröder, at times, forcing Jackson to either defend James or Davis or a quicker guard.

The Lakers’ paint-heavy offensive approach naturally draws fouls on opposing big men. Jackson will undoubtedly win many of those battles, blocking and altering dozens of shots. But the fouls may rack up quickly. And, if they do, Memphis doesn’t have many great alternatives to turn to. Tillman is a solid backup-turned-starter, but there’s only so much he can do defensively. Beyond that, Santi Aldama, Ziaire Williams and David Roddy filling in for Jackson is a win for the Lakers, especially with Davis on the floor.

Series X-factor: Transition defense

Both teams are at their best in the open floor, where they each leverage their respective athleticism and skill to get to the rim (and, in the Grizzlies’ case, attempt open 3s).

Memphis ranks 22nd in half-court points per play, per Cleaning the Glass. However, the Grizzlies rank third in transition points per 100 plays, including fourth off steals and fifth off live rebounds. They are going to push the pace, with Morant, Bane — whose stocky frame belies his speed — and Jones leading the charge.

In comparison, the Lakers are 19th in half-court points per play. They’re similarly much better in transition, ranking seventh in transition points per play, including 30th off turnovers (an area they need to clean up) and second off of live rebounds.

Defense is where things get interesting. The Grizzlies rank 16th in fast-break points allowed — slightly below-league average. The Lakers rank 27th in opponent fast-break points — an abysmal figure that could be their Achilles heel in this series. Even with the Lakers’ defensive rise post-trade deadline, they improved to just 26th overall in opponent fast-break points.

These are the type of killer baskets — Morant hitting a wide-open Aldama one second after a Brown missed 3 — the Lakers can’t allow.

Leak-outs are inevitable, but the Lakers must have at least two defenders running back on defense each possession.

The Grizzlies have a below-average half-court offense. They can be too reliant on Morant’s shot creation. He’s great enough to bail them out, but the Lakers will have an advantage if they can dictate the tempo. Los Angeles still needs to run, but the Lakers will probably lose if this turns into a track meet.

Additional thoughts and observations

Most important for Los Angeles: Can James and Davis stay healthy for seven games? Can they withstand the heaviest workload they’ve handled in years? (Likely logging 38 to 40 minutes every night for two straight weeks.)
How many Grizzlies will James ruthlessly pick on? The guess here is at least two (Morant and Kennard), with Bane, Tillman and Aldama, if he plays, also candidates. Going back to previous Lakers-Clippers matchups, Kennard is a favorite target of James.
How much will coaching familiarity play a factor? Ham and Jenkins are both from the Mike Budenholzer coaching tree — an offshoot of the Gregg Popovich lineage. They’re presumably going to be able to predict each other’s adjustments more so than the average coaching matchup.
How big is the free-throw disparity? The Lakers have a significant advantage based on the regular season, but that could change in the heated, physical playoffs.
How many players does Ham use in his rotation? He surprisingly went with 10 in the Play-In matchup’s first half. That is too many for a competitive playoff game. The Lakers can’t afford to use lineups with four bench players and one of James or Davis. They need at least two of James, Davis, Reaves and Russell on the floor at all times.
The starters are obvious. Schröder and Hachimura are rotation locks. The eighth spot is a battle between Brown and Malik Beasley. Brown is bigger and a much better defender and rebounder. He makes more sense in this series as a player who can defend either Bane and Brooks — and even Morant, in a pinch.
How often does L.A. go small? There are pros and cons in this matchup, but the Lakers are better off stay bigger more often not considering the Grizzlies’ athleticism advantage.
Which backup point guard is more effective: Jones or Schröder?
Will Kennard go nuclear against the Lakers, as he has in the past?
Who’s the random role player — likely one on each side — who’s going to swing a game?
What will Brooks’ best pregame fit be?
How many games will Shannon Sharpe attend?

Prediction

The Lakers won the season series 2-1, but it’s difficult to glean much from the three matchups. At least one of James, Morant or Davis missed each of the games. Davis and James never played together. Adams played in one of the games; Clarke played in two. Thomas Bryant and Patrick Beverley started the first game, which came before the trade deadline. There was a lot of Lonnie Walker IV in the second and third games.

One thing is clear from the past two seasons: These two teams aren’t fond of each other. There is going to be a lot of trash-talking and physical play. This has a good chance to be the most exciting first-round series.

The absences of Adams and Clarke can’t be understated. They are two of Memphis’ three best bigs. Adams’ rebounding, screening and toughness, and Clarke’s defense, energy and athleticism, are key ingredients to Memphis’ success over the past two seasons. Memphis is 20-16 since Adams’ injury. Interestingly, the Grizzlies have played better since Clarke’s injury, finishing the season 13-7.

The Lakers arguably have the two best players in this series. Morant versus Davis is close. But after that, Memphis has at least the three next-best players — Morant, Jackson and Bane — and a supporting cast that can outplay the Lakers’ on any given night.

But the Lakers are relatively comfortable against Memphis. They don’t fear the Grizzlies the way other lower seeds might. James will be unfazed by their antics. If anything, he has some extra motivation after what Brooks and Bane have said about him over the past two years. James has an elephant memory. He’s going to take this personally.

This feels like a hard-fought series that’ll go at least six, if not seven games. James’ and Davis’ postseason pedigree, All-NBA-level production and all-around greatness give the Lakers the slightest of edges, but the margins are razor-thin for both sides. The absence of Adams and Clarke is enough to sway the outcome.

Lakers in seven.