The Mets’ spending spree continues apace, even after they invested heavily to bring in Justin Verlander and retain Brandon Nimmo, as they gave Nippon Professional Baseball free agent Kodai Senga a five-year, $75 million contract that puts a higher degree of confidence on his ability to start in Major League Baseball than most clubs seemed to have.

Advertisement

Senga, 29, certainly looks the part of a potential No. 2 starter, with a fastball that has hit triple digits and a probable out pitch in his splitter. He has four pitches, with a slider that earns grades from 40 to 55 from scouts and a curveball that at least looks like it could be an average weapon. He was very successful as a starter in Japan, finishing second in ERA in the Pacific League last year, behind the best pitcher in Japan in Yoshinobu Yamamoto, while finishing third in strikeouts. He walked more batters than the league average for all pitchers, at 8.6 percent, which feeds into scouts’ concerns about his command not being good enough to work as a starter in MLB even with such premium stuff.

Other scouts questioned whether his slight build would hold up in an MLB rotation, and whether he had the feel for his pitches or intensity to handle turning over deeper MLB lineups two or three times per start. As you might infer, there’s a very wide range of opinions on his likely role in MLB, from mid-rotation starter to someone who has to move to the bullpen and be primarily a two-pitch reliever with his fastball and splitter.

It might just be the winner’s curse – the team that was most certain he could start would be the one willing to pay the most to acquire him, but that might just make them the strongest optimists.

The New York Mets and free-agent right-hander Kodai Senga are in agreement on a five-year, $75 million contract, a major-league source confirms to The Athletic.

The deal includes no-trade and opt-out clauses.

— The Athletic MLB (@TheAthleticMLB) December 11, 2022

The Mets are sort of playing with house money here, as they already had a full rotation with Verlander, Max Scherzer, José Quintana, Carlos Carrasco and David Peterson, along with Tylor Megill as the long man/sixth starter. They’re paying Senga to be a starter, really, at $15 million a year – that’s fourth starter money or premium closer money, but they have one of the latter already and just gave him a whole truckload of cash.

Advertisement

They can afford to roll the dice here – if Senga beats expectations and stays a starter, they’re in the catbird seat with the depth they have; and if not, he bolsters their bullpen, which is probably the only area of weakness left on this roster. If they’re completely convinced he’ll be a starter, they could trade Carrasco, who’s due to hit free agency after the 2023 season; or Peterson, who would be a starter for a lot of teams right now and still makes close to the minimum salary. I’m not sure that’s advisable given what I’ve heard from scouts who’ve seen Senga, and pitching is fickle enough that the Mets are unlikely to regret having six or seven viable MLB starters.

I mentioned Yamamoto, who has won the Sawamura Award, NPB’s equivalent to the Cy Young Award, the past two seasons, posting a 1.54 ERA in nearly 400 innings with a 27.7 percent strikeout rate and a well above-average walk rate of 5.5 percent. In a direct comparison, Senga’s only advantage over Yamamoto is in height, with about two inches between their listed heights.

If Senga got this deal, then what would Yamamoto get if he were posted next winter or the one following? He might be a No. 1 starter in MLB and doesn’t have any of the reliever concerns that Senga carries. Teams that were scared off by those on Senga won’t have the same on Yamamato. If he had been posted right now, he’d probably be looking at six years and $180 million or so, maybe slightly less to account for the posting fee. Both he and his employers, the Orix Buffaloes, have to be ecstatic to see this contract come through.

(Photo: Harry How / Getty Images)