CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — If there’s any one thing that’s certain, entering Year 3 of the Hubert Davis era at North Carolina, it’s this:

Change isn’t always a bad thing.

After last season — when UNC became the first preseason No. 1 team, since the NCAA Tournament expanded in 1985, to miss the field altogether — some alterations were probably necessary. So, voila: Out went eight scholarship players, replaced by five transfers and a two-man freshman class. For the first time since Davis became head coach, back in April 2021, he had the opportunity to remake the Tar Heels’ roster as he saw fit. And the early returns on the team he’s built? On a team that’s truly his?

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“I love the mix,” Davis said Friday, speaking to the media for the first time since July. “This is a group that enjoys and loves to compete. They just really do; I mean, from the start, there’s never been an issue about preparing, practicing, and playing with a competitive fight.”

Davis went on to compliment his team’s camaraderie and how his roster “genuinely enjoys being around each other.” The morale seems much improved in the Dean Smith Center compared to mid-March. And the gift of hindsight, as it so often does, has helped UNC’s few returners recognize what went wrong last season — importantly, so it doesn’t happen again.

“We (were) a little Hollywood,” fifth-year center Armando Bacot said. “We definitely got humbled, and it gave us some perspective on everything — but with that too, though, we’re ready to fight.”

First *official* practice 🗣️

— Carolina Basketball (@UNC_Basketball) September 25, 2023

It’s easy to have that optimism in October, before any games have been played, but the Tar Heels’ hope seems genuine. And maybe more importantly? It seems well-founded. That’s based on public comments and open practice, sure, but also from conversations behind the scenes with people close to the program, who were granted anonymity in exchange for their candor. So, why such strong confidence that Davis’ third season will turn out better than his second?

Here are the main ones I’m hearing a month before UNC’s season starts:

Ryan, the graduate transfer from Notre Dame, might not be UNC’s best newcomer this season, but he’s shaping up to be its most important.

How come? It’s as much about the basketball skill set he brings as the leadership he provides. But start with the hoops: Ryan is a legitimate sharpshooter, the kind North Carolina so desperately lacked last season. And while his pure percentage last season may not be overwhelming — he made 34.4 percent of his 5.7 3-point attempts per game, similar in volume to R.J. Davis in 2021-2022 — he hit 40.3 percent from deep for a Sweet 16 team the year before. People close to the program note that while Ryan has been a little streaky at times, when he’s on, he’s on. I’ve posted this heat map before, courtesy of CBB Analytics, but I find it pretty illuminating as to just how potent Ryan can be:

Hubert Davis said that Ryan is one of three players — the others being R.J. Davis and Brown transfer Paxson Wojcik — who has the metaphorical “green light” this season, a system he adopted from Dean Smith. Ryan also fits the up-tempo style Davis said he’s striving for this season. Per Synergy, Ryan averaged 1.389 points per possession in transition last season, which rated in the 92nd percentile nationally and was his best offensive action. As the Tar Heels look to bring back the traditional secondary break offense, Ryan is a near-perfect fit as a corner floor-spacer.

GO DEEPER

UNC has 7 newcomers. How will they fit in to Hubert Davis' roster?

And after only a few months on campus, Ryan has already established himself as a leader. “He’s more doing it through his play, and just how he is,” Bacot said. “Like, he just does not back down. He’s relentless, and having somebody like that is refreshing.” It helps that Ryan was a three-time captain for the Fighting Irish, as those tendencies have carried over.

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Your starters are …

Davis said Friday that he doesn’t “have a number” of guys he’s going to play, reiterating that whoever practices best would play. But it’s clear, from one open practice and speaking to those who have attended others, that four guys have already separated themselves as starters: Bacot, Ryan, R.J. Davis, and Stanford transfer Harrison Ingram.

After that? Well, that fifth spot will be earned. Davis has options, though, which is encouraging — and based on his past lineups, there are clues as to who might ultimately end up there. Ingram said that he’s been practicing more at the three than the four, which matches up with what the staff believed when they first landed the former five-star recruit. So while Ingram has the potential to slide up to the four, especially in small-ball lineups — he’s listed at 6-foot-7 and 235 pounds — that doesn’t seem to be his most natural position. That would seemingly leave a void open at power forward, where UNC’s starter the last two seasons came from the transfer portal: Brady Manek, and then Pete Nance. Could one of sophomore Jalen Washington, Louisville transfer Jae’Lyn Withers, or even freshman Zayden High earn that role? It sounds as if Washington is among the frontrunners there, although the sophomore big said he’s been practicing more at center than power forward.

The other option would be going small, and starting reclassified five-star freshman Elliot Cadeau next to R.J. Davis in the backcourt. But the history of reclassifying freshman guards is checkered, and it was apparent in UNC’s open scrimmage that for as talented as Cadeau is, he still has some room to grow. In several full-court possessions, Davis harped on Cadeau to bring the ball up the floor faster, and the 6-foot-1 guard took some questionable shots despite being well-covered. “He will be good, and I know he’ll be good,” Bacot said of Cadeau, “just because of how smart he is, and his ability to pass the ball.” For what it’s worth, Cadeau’s misses on Friday seemed like an outlier performance; people around the program have said the pass-first guard has been a better shooter so far than anticipated.

Davis’ most impactful freshman class?

Davis has been criticized the last two seasons for not playing his bench enough — per KenPom, UNC ranked 348th and 360th in bench minutes, respectively, in 2021 and 2022 — but given the early word on his two freshmen, that shouldn’t be the case again. Both Cadeau and High have drawn praise from people close to the program for their efforts thus far, and that was widely backed up in interviews with reporters, too.

That’s less of a surprise with Cadeau than it is with High. Cadeau specifically reclassified this summer because of the opportunity to play immediately; he told The Athletic this summer that was the main driver in his decision to enroll early. On the other hand, High was the No. 92 recruit in the 2023 class, per the 247Sports Composite, and was widely considered a longer-term developmental prospect.

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But it sounds like that timeline has already sped up, based on what the 6-foot-9, 225-pound forward has shown in practice.

“He’s way better than I thought he would be. He’s good. He’s good,” Ingram said of High. “It’s everything; he’s strong — really strong for a freshman — shot-blocking, making the right play, really his defense.” Bacot echoed that same praise, and was even more blunt in his prediction: “He’s gonna play a lot this year.”

If so, that would be a coup for Davis on the recruiting trail, and a much-needed young frontcourt piece to build around.

Final notes

• Withers and sophomore guard Seth Trimble both sat out of Friday’s open practice with lower body injuries, but a UNC spokesperson confirmed both injuries are minor and day-to-day.

• Wojcik — the son of former UNC and current Michigan State assistant Doug Wojcik (who helped recruit current assistant Sean May out of high school) — has also made a strong early impression, especially as a shooter. As Davis mentioned, he’s been one of UNC’s best marksmen this summer, leaving only one real question: Will that translate against ACC-caliber athletes, instead of just teammates? It remains to be seen, but if so, the opportunity is there for Wojcik to be a significant piece of the wing rotation.

• Withers’ athleticism has been obvious in social media highlights the team has posted, but his teammates agreed he’s one of the bouncier guys on the team. That, plus his defensive versatility at 6-foot-9, makes him an intriguing name in the frontcourt mix.

• Bacot looked visibly thinner than last season and said he intentionally cut weight to get closer to his freshman playing size of 232 pounds. “I got a little too thick,” Bacot joked, noting he played most of last season at around 248 pounds. Bacot said he initially bulked up after his freshman year because he didn’t want to be pushed around by stronger players but said that playing lighter should help his ankle health, something that’s bothered him the last two seasons.

(Photo of Armando Bacot: Grant Halverson / Getty Images)