Part of the reason we love playing fantasy football so much is the constant swirling state of variance even when those same qualities of infinite flux make statistical analysis all the more difficult. Inherently the NFL is not only a game of small samples, but one whose outcomes are extremely vulnerable to game scripts. What I mean to say is since something like injuries impact such an immediate and drastic change, oftentimes the overall statistical leaders are just the healthiest players with the most games started. While availability’s certainly an ability, I always take some time to examine the back half of the season looking for takeaways to highlight anything we might miss using broad search parameters. NOTE: Unless otherwise specified all stats per Trumedia From Week 11 – Week 18

Advertisement

Arizona Cardinals

Recently departed Deandre Hopkins’ vacated 10.0 Targets/Game and 111.6 Air Yards/Game (both Top 7 among all WRs) in the second half left a massive void in the desert. Since the Cards have yet to bring in a viable replacement for Nuk, if Marquise Brown can soak up just one-third of those looks going forward he has the potential to be the most targeted wideout in the league. Arizona is projected by Vegas to have the league’s worst point differential and win no more than five games this season, which should mean lots and lots of garbage time points for Brown.

Atlanta Falcons

Tyler Allgeier, a fifth-round rookie, posted 592 Rushing Yards, 5.5 Yards Per Rush, and 0.12 EPA/Rush down the stretch for a team that led the entire league in Rush Attempts Per Game (32.9) in 2022 — all three metrics were Top 5 among running backs. Transfer that work over to a generational first-round talent and you have my RB1 in Bijan Robinson.

Carolina Panthers

Somehow the Panthers were a second-half Top 10 offense in both Yards Per Play (5.66) and EPA/Play (0.05) even after jettisoning arguably the league’s best player in Christian McCaffrey. Their ground game quietly led the entire NFL in Rush Rate (58.8%), Rushes Per Game (35.7), and Rushing Yards Per Game (165.7). The lion’s share of those Panthers touches has been abandoned with the departure of D’Onta Foreman, making replacement Miles Sanders a nice volume play with profit potential, as he’s going outside of the Top 60 overall.

Chicago Bears

Justin Fields‘ 1,143 Rushing Yards in 2022 were more than all but six RBs, and he led the entire NFL in Yards Per Carry (7.1). The Bears just added a target monster this offseason in DJ Moore who racked up nearly 55% of his team’s Air Yards over the final two months of play in 2022. Fields’ potential to explode is obvious — he was the fantasy QB1 two weeks in a row last year, and there’s zero chance he gets past me in a draft room after pick 50.

Advertisement

Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb were one of only two NFL QB/WR combos in the second half of 2022 to go for 2,000 Passing Yards and 650 Receiving Yards, respectively. To that, they’ve added Brandin Cooks, one of the most consistent veteran producers in the game to play second fiddle for the first time in his career. Prescott could easily finish inside the Top 6 at the position if Dallas stays relatively healthy. When I land in the back half of fantasy drafts, I’m keeping the Cowboys mini-stack in mind — especially if I’ve missed out on the top dual-threat QBs by the time Dak’s turn comes around.

Detroit Lions

Jared Goff‘s second-half 0.60 EPA/Play-Action Attempt was comically ahead of the field at his position and played a big part in making him a Top 5 QB during that stretch (for reference, Patrick Mahomes was second at 0.42 and Josh Allen third at 0.31). It doesn’t end there, either. Goff finished Weeks 11-18 as the QB1 in terms of EPA/Attempt (0.30) and EPA/Dropback (0.24). While I understand there’s no surface production from Jameson Williams to reference during the six games he suited up (9 Targets; 1/41/1), I truly believe he played a critical role in the Lions’ success by forcing the opposition to defend basically every inch of the field. I’m ready to restore the roar.

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay ranked fourth in RB Target Rate (22.4%) during the second half of 2022 and Aaron Jones was the main beneficiary. We saw glimpses of the RB1 being drafted early in recent years past, putting up Top 10 outputs in Fantasy Points Per Snap (0.42), Team Target% (14.3), Target Per Route Run (27.3%), and Yards Per Route (1.52) while leading all NFL RBs in Slot Receptions (9) during that span. I think, regardless of what we get from Jordan Love, Jones has the perfect archetype to provide a safe floor as the current RB16 in PPR formats.

Los Angeles Rams

Even though the Rams were devoid of every Kickoff Weekend star on offense come Thanksgiving you wouldn’t have known it from Cam Akers’ production down the stretch. Akers’ Top 5 second-half positional finishes in Rush Attempts (126), Rushing Yards (610), Rushing TDs (6), +100 Yard Rushing Games (3), and even Red Zone Targets (6) make him a crucial part of my most compelling case against drafting multiple early RBs.

Minnesota Vikings

The other of only two NFL QB/WR combos in the second half of 2022 to go for 2,000 Passing Yards and 650 Receiving Yards, respectively, the Kirk Cousins-to-Justin Jefferson battery is already attached to fantasy lore as they broke four Vikings franchise records last year. The Purple People Eaters got help from a bad defense and a fast track as Jefferson earned over 10 targets a game and led all WRs in Total Points (159.4) and FAN PPG (19.9). The 674 routes ran last year by his teammate Adam Thielen were more than anyone in the league except for Jefferson, so there’s no way I was leaving here without telling you to draft Jordan Addison based on opportunity alone.

Advertisement

New Orleans Saints

This one’s a season-long stat, but it’s my favorite offseason citation. Only 11 players with +185 Routes Run averaged +0.50 Fantasy Points Per Route. Now let’s see if you can find a common thread with the first nine — Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, and Jaylen Waddle. If you guessed that they all go inside the Top 24 overall, you’d be correct. The other two WRs available after pick 24 are Christian Watson (ADP 41) and the Saints’ Rasheed Shaheed (ADP 165), easily one of my favorite late targets in any format.

New York Giants

Although Saquon Barkley took the fifth-most snaps (340) of 80 total RBs with +15 carries after Week 11, he was 20th in Attempts Per Game (13.9), 55th in Yards Per Attempt (3.9), 50th in EPA/Attempt (-0.10), 70th in YAC Per Rush (2.33) and scored 0 TDs despite only facing an 8-man box 25.8% of the time. Barkley’s fantasy worth centered wholly around receiving work in 2022, which appears bound to decrease with a half dozen new additions to the wide receiver room in New York. Add the human battering ram Daniel Jones to steal goal-line carries into the equation and you have my easiest player fade in the Top 25.

Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts rattled off four straight regular-season weekly finishes as the QB2 or better, posting 27.0 second-half FAN PPG — 18% higher than the field. It’s hard to believe that stat included the Eagles regularly taking their foot off the gas in the second half of games. Establishing the fourth-most prolific passing attack (66.9%) early on led to a first-half +38 point differential for Philadelphia, to go with 238 Rushing Yards for their QB. Once ahead, the Eagles clearly reversed course, dropping their passing rate to 51.1% as Hurts’ rushing output halved. The Eagles’ schedule in 2023 will be an order of magnitude more difficult than last year and I think if they’re pressed for four quarters regularly we’re going to see Hurts finish as fantasy’s top overall player.

Seattle Seahawks

Tyler Lockett was fantasy football’s WR13 down the stretch by FAN PPG, and despite solid WR2 numbers across the board (7.7 Targets/Game, 65.5 Receiving Yards/Game, 4 TD), his draft price continues to plummet weekly. Lockett also finished inside the week’s Top 5 WRs twice last season, something his teammate DK Metcalf failed to do even once. While I do think rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba will produce to an extent this year, I believe his true breakout will be in 2024 and Lockett’s currently going entirely too late as the WR32.

San Francisco 49ers

Christian McCaffrey reminded the world why he’s the best back in fantasy football today (and maybe ever), finishing as the top dog because of his unique prevalence in the passing game. CMC led the position in total points (172.2) as well as FAN PPG (21.5) by embodying the essence of game-script independence. Averaging 14.9 Attempts Per Game at 0.04 EPA/Rush and 2.18 Yards Before Contact Per Rush creates a scoring base just waiting to get elevated through the air. Kyle Shanahan wove McCaffrey perfectly into the SF offense with elite usage in the aerial attack, leading all runners in Routes Run (197), Route Per Dropback% (78.2), Targets (48), Team Target% (21), Receptions (38), and Receiving Yards (346). Scary to think they were able to devise and implement all this on the fly, with zero offseason preparation. Finishing as the overall No. 1 scorer is squarely in McCaffrey’s range of outcomes.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

That soft sucking is the sweet sound of backfield volume. The departure of Leonard Fournette vacated more than 51% of TB’s carries, 54% of their total yards on the ground, three-quarters of their rushing TDs, and 82 targets. If Rachaad White can suck up the majority of that on top of his present workload, we’re talking about a potential floor of 15 fantasy points a game in PPR formats being drafted outside the Top 80.

Washington Commanders

After the Carson Wentz experiment got booed off the stage for the last time in Week 7, Terry McLaurin was a Top 12 wideout in fantasy points scored (162.5), Receiving Yards (824), Team Target% (27.2), Target Per Route Run% (24.8), Yards Per Route Run (2.46), Yards Per Reception (15.0), Team Air Yard% (40.7), and Air Yards Per Game (94.6). I understand there’s an air of uncertainty surrounding the quarterback change in the nation’s capital to Sam Howell, but I think it’s already baked into a late fourth-round cost as the WR26.

Advertisement

Wow, that ended up being a ton of digging, but I really enjoyed it and I hope you did too. Let us know what your favorite stat was down below in the comments.

Please follow me on Twitter @JohnLaghezza where I have a link pinned to my inexpensive off-site ranks that also include this wonderful data on formatted cheat sheets with a free downloadable .CSV.

(Tom Horak-USA TODAY Sports)