Brock Purdy enjoyed a Week 4 performance we haven’t witnessed since 2019. Patrick Mahomes has produced numbers in the opening four weeks of an NFL season that we’ve never seen from him.

Baker Mayfield seemingly isn’t going anywhere, for the better. The same can be said about Joe Burrow, for the worse.

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And two quarterbacks who received monster contracts this offseason are starting to catch fire.

Here’s my weekly look at how quarterbacks stand using traditional statistics like passer rating, along with advanced metrics like Expected Points Added per dropback, via TruMedia, to provide a number-based outlook on the state of the position.

I’ll also give a sneak peek at the upcoming matchups using EPA per dropback for the quarterbacks and the defenses they will face in Week 5.

(Quarterbacks are listed by overall EPA per dropback rankings.)

Nos. 1-8

You had to figure some team would slow down Tua Tagovailoa at some point. He faced legitimate (but not overwhelming) pass pressure for the first time this season as the Miami Dolphins quarterback absorbed four sacks in the loss to the Buffalo Bills. Tagovailoa yielded a -0.59 EPA rate against the blitz, which was his worst since … Week 3 last season against the Bills. Still, he should excel against most teams given his 2.29 seconds-to-throw rate is the second fastest in the league.

Doubt Purdy at your own risk. The San Francisco 49ers passer only produced the best single-game EPA rate and completion percentage (95.2 percent) of any quarterback in the last four seasons during the team’s win over the Arizona Cardinals. Let me repeat that: the best EPA rate and completion percentage of any QB in the last FOUR SEASONS! His 134.6 passer rating in Week 4 was the second-best mark of his young career.

Josh Allen played the best game of his NFL career in Week 4 in terms of EPA rate, passer rating and completion percentage. He compiled the 34th perfect passer rating since 2000 during the Bills’ throttling of the Dolphins. So it makes sense that his 0.67 EPA rate and 84.0 completion percentage stand as single-game career highs. It’s the second time Allen completed more than 80 percent of his throws this season (83.8 percent, Week 2 vs. Raiders), which has led to him leading the NFL in this stat through four weeks.

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Left hand wrap and all, Justin Herbert did just enough in Week 4 to remain among the top five in EPA rankings. His 54.2 completion percentage in Week 4 was the fourth lowest in one game in his career. The Los Angeles Chargers quarterback’s 13 completions against the Las Vegas Raiders were by far a career low (previous low — 18 vs. Patriots, Week 8, 2021). Still, Herbert is off to his best start in passer rating and tied for his best career start in EPA rate through Week 4.

The New York Jets gave Mahomes more fits than perhaps he anticipated. His 63.6 passer rating in Week 4 was the fifth-lowest single-game rate of his career with one touchdown and two interceptions. Yes, the bar set for Mahomes breaks through the roof. Still, he’s off to the worst start of his NFL career in EPA rate and passer rating:

Mahomes EPA per dropback (Weeks 1-4)

• 2018: 0.41
• 2019: 0.42
• 2020: 0.31
• 2021: 0.44
• 2022: 0.30
• 2023: 0.16

Mahomes Passer rating (Weeks 1-4)

• 2018: 126.5
• 2019: 120.4
• 2020: 114.1
• 2021: 119.6
• 2022: 108.4
• 2023: 92.0

Maybe Mayfield isn’t going away? Mayfield tallied a better EPA rate and passer rating in his first start against the New Orleans Saints as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback than Tom Brady ever amassed in the previous three seasons. Brady’s best rates vs. New Orleans came in Week 8 in the 2021 season with a 0.12 EPA rate and 112.0 passer rating. And Brady’s numbers in the other six games (postseason included) weren’t nearly as good.

I thought the Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud played well last week with a 0.39 EPA rate and 118.8 passer rating in the team’s Week 3 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Then the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft popped an even better EPA rate and comparable passer rating against what’s perceived to be a better defense in the Pittsburgh Steelers. Stroud has the fifth-best passer rating for a rookie QB through Weeks 1-4 since 2001.

Nos. 9-17

The Arizona Cardinals have been clear about their intention to start Kyler Murray when he’s healthy at some point this season, but teams have to be paying attention to Joshua Dobbs. The current Cardinals passer ranks seventh with a 70.7 completion percentage and third in EPA rate when blitzed at 0.37. Dobbs produced a 1.10 EPA rate when blitzed against the 49ers. I’m sure there are a few teams that would benefit from Dobbs under center within their offense.

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Jared Goff produced his lowest EPA rate since Week 9 of last season during the Detroit Lions’ Week 4 win over the Green Bay Packers. That was the game before Goff caught fire in the latter half of the year. And the opponent last season? The Packers, but the Lions actually won both of those games. And here’s a bit of an oddity. In the Lions’ last four wins dating back to 2022 Week 18, Goff carried a 0.02 EPA rate and 88.3 passer rating. In the Week 2 loss to Seattle, Goff amassed a 0.29 EPA rate and 121.8 passer rating.

There’s no dismissing Russell Wilson’s impact in the Denver Broncos’ Week 4 come-from-behind win over the Chicago Bears. Wilson yielded his best EPA rate since Week 17 of the 2021 season. His Week 4 passer rating was his second best in the last three seasons.

Rookie Aidan O’Connell tallied a -0.21 EPA rate and 68.1 passer rating in place of Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion) as the Raiders’ Week 4 starter.

Anthony Richardson joined fellow rookie Stroud in the top 10 of Week 4-only EPA rankings, despite only a 44.0 completion percentage in the Colts’ loss to the Rams. A monster fourth quarter significantly boosted Richardson’s rates (fourth quarter: 1.12 EPA rate, 122.5 passer rating) and helped push the game to overtime.

A rough week for the Seattle Seahawks’ Geno Smith. He left and came back from a knee injury against the New York Giants. He produced his worst EPA rate since becoming the starter in Seattle. So what played a part in his rough EPA rate while having a solid passer rating? Smith was 14.3 percent on third-down conversions and only threw for 110 yards.

The Packers’ Jordan Love completed at least 60 percent of his passes for the first time this season in Week 4. But Love finished with his lowest EPA rate as a starter and a passer rating below 70.0 for the second straight week. Love has faced a 48.8 pressure rate in the Lions loss, his highest of the season. The previous high occurred in Green Bay’s Week 3 win against the Saints, but that rate was only 22.4 percent.

Nos. 18-25

Lamar Jackson’s 104.2 overall passer rating is his second highest through four games in his career. No surprise that was during Jackson’s 2019 MVP season. Jackson also posted his highest season-long completion percentage in 2019 at 66.1 percent. Through four weeks, Jackson’s rate stands nearly 10 points higher at 74.3 percent (No. 4 overall). The Baltimore Ravens’ quarterback also ranks fourth (among 67 qualified players) in EPA per target/rush at 0.18.

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Jalen Hurts put together his best EPA rate and passer rating since Super Bowl LVII during the Philadelphia Eagles’ Week 4 win over the Washington Commanders. Hurts holds a 0.07 EPA per target/rush rate (17th). Though he has scored three rushing TDs, he’s only averaging 3.4 yards per carry and all three rushing TDs occurred on QB sneaks.

Kirk Cousins managed to overcome a 99-yard pick six with two touchdowns of his own to help the Minnesota Vikings outlast the Carolina Panthers in Week 4. But along the way, Cousins nearly made dubious personal history. His -0.57 EPA rate was his second-worst single-game outing of his career. It didn’t help that Cousins was only 1-of-8 on third-down conversions with the ball in his hands. His Week 4 passer rating was his worst since Week 17 last season.

Should Derek Carr have fought through a shoulder injury to play in Week 4? Well, the Saints failed to score a touchdown and Carr threw for only 127 yards on 23 completions in the loss to the Bucs. Carr’s 5.5 yards per completion marked the lowest single-game rate of any quarterback since Ben Roethlisberger in Week 17 of 2021. It’s also the second time this season Carr yielded a passer rating below 70.0.

Sam Howell rebounded in the Commanders’ Week 4 loss to the Eagles after posting a 41.5 passer rating and -0.74 EPA rate in Week 3 against the Bills. Howell’s 0.24 EPA rate and 70.7 completion percentage Sunday were each the best of his starting NFL career.

The Bears just dropped more tires into the flame-engulfed dumpster by squandering Justin Fields’ best single-game passer rating and passing touchdown performance of his career in Week 4. Fields’ 80.0 percent completion rate also matched a single-game career high. Chicago has lost Fields’ top eight passer-rating games of his career.

Trevor Lawrence’s EPA rate might not have been Brock-Purdy awesome in Week 4. But it’s a move in the right direction for the Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback. In the win over the Atlanta Falcons, Lawrence yielded his first positive EPA rate since Week 18 last season. And his Week 4 passer rating was his best since Week 15 last season.

Nos. 26-34

Ryan Tannehill produced his best EPA rate since Week 11 last season in the Tennessee Titans’ Week 4 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Yes, Derrick Henry threw a TD pass. But Tannehill and the Titans reverted back to the formula that’s made them successful for many years before last season by Henry carrying the load and Tannehill not making too many mistakes.

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The New England Patriots seem to be at a crossroads moment with Mac Jones. The 2021 first-round pick tallied the worst single-game EPA rate of his career in the Week 4 loss to the Cowboys. His 39.9 passer rating was his worst since Week 7 last season when he only threw three passes.

Small victories for the Jets’ Zach Wilson. He amassed the best single-game passer rating and second-best completion percentage (71.8 percent) in his NFL career in the Week 4 loss to the Chiefs. It’s the second time Wilson produced a passer rating above 100.0 and a completion percentage higher than 70.0 percent in his career.

Deshaun Watson missed Week 4 with a shoulder injury. The Cleveland Browns rolled with 2023 fifth-round pick Dorian Robinson-Thompson against the Titans and things didn’t go well for the former UCLA standout: -0.65 EPA rate (32nd in Week 4), 25.3 passer rating (32nd).

The Falcons’ Desmond Ridder has posted back-to-back career-worst EPA rates in his young, and possibly brief, starting quarterback career. His -0.51 EPA rate against the Jaguars in Week 4 came after a -0.32 rate in a Week 3 loss to Detroit. Atlanta scored six points in Week 3 and seven points in Week 4. This isn’t a lost season by any means for Atlanta. Is it time for backup Taylor Heinicke to get a shot?

Sunday brought more of the same bewilderment around Joe Burrow. His Week 4 EPA rate in the loss to the Titans was his second worst of the 2023 season behind a -0.65 clip in the Week 1 loss to the Browns. His overall 57.6 completion percentage ranks 32nd among 34 qualified quarterbacks this season. He’s among the league’s least-pressured quarterbacks with a 29.2 percent rate (fourth lowest) and he’s gotten rid of the ball faster than any other passer in the NFL (averaging 2.25 seconds from snap to throw).

Bryce Young’s passer rating wasn’t awful in the Panthers’ Week 4 loss to the Vikings. His 78.1 completion percentage was top-notch. But it’s all for naught if you can’t scratch out an offensive TD. Young’s EPA rate in his three starts: -0.24 in Week 1, -0.26 in Week 2, -0.29 in Week 4. Meanwhile, his passer rating has risen in each of his three starts: 48.8 in Week 1, 87.1 in Week 2, 93.2 in Week 4.

It’s simply not getting better for the Steelers’ Kenny Pickett. He’s yielded his second-, third-, and fourth-worst EPA rates of his starting career in three of his four 2023 games. He added a -0.41 outing to his discouraging resume in the team’s loss to the Texans. Pickett left Week 4 with a knee injury. Mitchell Trubisky would start if Pickett isn’t ready for Week 5.

GO DEEPER

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Week 5 defense vs. QB EPA matchups

(Photo: David Eulitt / Getty Images)