Cover 7 | Sunday A daily NFL destination that provides in-depth analysis of football’s biggest stories. Each Sunday, three of The Athletic’s NFL writers react to the biggest news, plays and performances from the day’s games.

The NFL playoffs are quickly approaching, and a few teams in Week 13 delivered clutch wins to solidify their resumes, while others took significant hits with gut-punch losses.

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No game exemplified both sides of that coin like the one that took place on Sunday in Houston. The Texans and Denver Broncos battled to the end, with Houston’s defense stiffening with its back against its own end zone. But Texans safety Jimmy Ward came away with the play of the game, intercepting Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson to seal the Texans’ victory.

WELCOME BACK JIMMIE WARD ‼️

— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) December 3, 2023

The win pushes Houston to 7-5 and in the thick of the AC playoff hunt, while Denver is going to need some help now at 6-6.

The Detroit Lions, meanwhile, are in no danger of missing the playoffs. Despite watching a 21-0 lead against the New Orleans Saints quickly evaporate, they held on to win 33-28 and move to 9-3. Still, bleeding points to a team that has struggled to score like New Orleans has to make you wonder how they’re going to fare against the NFC elite come playoff time.

Speaking of NFC elite, the San Francisco 49ers proved to be the cream of that crop on Sunday, trouncing the Eagles in Philadelphia, 42-19. The 10-2 Eagles are still clinging to the No. 1 seed, but 9-3 San Francisco certainly made an impressive statement.

On the other end of the spectrum, the New York Jets and New England Patriots are each amid lost seasons. For the Jets, their 13-8 home loss to Atlanta may have effectively ended any chance of quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ returning this season. At 4-8, the Jets chances of making the playoffs are almost gone.

The 2-10 Patriots, who lost 6-0 to the Los Angeles Chargers, actually are the worst team in the AFC, but the silver lining is that might just make them frontrunners to land one of the top two picks in the upcoming NFL Draft. If they freefall into a franchise-caliber rookie quarterback, it’s fascinating to think about who will be the coach charged with his development.

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The Athletic NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Dan Pompei share their thoughts on all of these storylines.

There are no concerns about the Lions’ offense. It’s one of the best units in the NFL. But does the way Detroit’s defense played today and in recent games, worry you in terms of being able to defeat teams like the Eagles, 49ers and Cowboys come the postseason?

Jones: Yes. This has been a long-standing problem. Compared to last season, they have improved slightly in terms of yards and points allowed. In 2022, they gave up 392.4 yards and 25.1 points per game. This year, it’s 318.8 yards and 23.5 points.

Detroit struggles in the red zone, allowing foes to score touchdowns on 68.8 percent of their trips inside the 20, which is third worst in the league. Dan Campbell’s team has won despite those deficiencies this season. But once they reach the postseason, this will likely prove to be their undoing. Philadelphia, San Francisco and Dallas all have potent offenses and the ability to engage in a shootout with anyone, and perhaps more importantly, all three boast defenses capable of making game-changing plays. The Lions also rank among the worst in the league in terms of takeaways, and as a result, they will likely come up short.

Nguyen: The Lions defense is bottom of the league in several metrics since the Ravens hung 38 on them. They have to sell out to stop the run, and as a result, they give up a lot of yardage on play-action. Their offense is as good as any in the NFL, but they’ll have to win shootouts when they play some of the top contenders. It’s a hard way to live, but that’s just how the Lions are built. Their offense has to force opposing offenses to get into a passing script by scoring often and early. It’ll be extremely hard for them to get stops if they fall behind by more than one possession.

Pompei: Yes. The Lions’ defense was their downfall last year. It’s better this year, but they still are allowing too many points and not coming up with critical stops when necessary. The good news for the Lions is help could be on the way. Opponents have double-teamed Aidan Hutchinson most of the season, and the Lions haven’t been able to take advantage with other rushers. They have to hope James Houston, who tallied eight sacks as a rookie last year, can return soon from his ankle issue. They also could get a significant boost if C.J. Gardner-Johnson can come back from his torn pec. Gardner-Johnson was one of the team’s primary offseason acquisitions but has not played since the second game of the season.

#AllGrit@CUREInsurance

— Detroit Lions (@Lions) December 3, 2023

The 49ers didn’t just beat the Eagles. They pounded the reigning NFC champions. It’s a simple question but one everyone will be asking themselves: Are the 49ers now the presumptive Super Bowl favorites?

Jones: It was an impressive performance for sure, but I’m not going to call them the presumptive Super Bowl favorite in Week 13. The 49ers and Eagles have rivaled each other this season for the distinction of the most complete team in the league. On Sunday, San Francisco certainly made a huge statement that they deserve that title.

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But we’ve seen the 49ers have off performances, too. This was the first time we’ve seen the Eagles really not have their stuff. I certainly hoped to see an instant classic, but this outcome made sense. Entering this game with a 10-1 record and riding a five-game win streak, the Eagles were hot, but also seemed due for a bad day, especially considering the physical and emotional toll of the last three victories. There was the tough, divisional win (28-23) over Dallas , a heavyweight bout (21-17) against the Chiefs and another haymaker-filled tilt (37-34) against the Bills — late-game comebacks being required in each of the last two. If the Eagles and 49ers faced off again three more times, we very likely would have a 2-2 series tie on our hands. It’ll be interesting to see the Eagles’ response to this loss next week when they face the Cowboys again, but I’m already praying to the football gods for an NFC championship rematch.

Nguyen: The 49ers have always been my Super Bowl favorites. There’s just no team that is as complete as them. Doubters presumed quarterback would be a weakness, and it’s fair to question Brock Purdy’s ceiling, but he’s playing at such a high level right now. He just threw for four touchdowns on the road and made the right play over and over again. I don’t think this game is reflective of the gap between the 49ers and the Eagles. The Eagles played three tough games in 13 days, including that overtime game against Buffalo last week. I have a feeling we’ll see a more competitive rematch in the playoffs.

Float like a butterfly, sting like a BA 🐝 @THE2ERA#SFvsPHI on FOX#ProBowlVote 🗳

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 3, 2023

Pompei: What that game told us is there is no presumptive Super Bowl favorite. The 49ers may be playing the best football in the league in early December, but they will have to maintain their level of play before earning that title. Their Christmas game against the Ravens will tell us a lot about the 49ers. As of now, they have no more wins than the Lions and Cowboys in the NFC, and still one fewer victory than the Eagles. All that being said, it’s safe to say there is no better team in the league today than San Francisco.

The Jets have now dropped to 4-8 after falling to the Falcons. Are we officially done talking about Aaron Rodgers now?

Jones: We should be. But Rodgers will find a way to thrust himself into the conversation regardless because he loves being at the center of things. It wouldn’t surprise me if he still tries — or at least gives the appearance of trying — to come back. It feels like he has nothing to gain, but perhaps he would rather knock off a little rust and see how his Achilles holds up. But if I’m the Jets and trying to protect my investment, I say, let’s just practice and give yourself extra time to heal. But, that’s just me.

GO DEEPER

As Aaron Rodgers weighs a Jets return, don't ask him why. 'Do you know my history?'

Nguyen: Yes. I’m not sure if it was ever realistic for him to play again this season, especially when the playoffs were unlikely. Risking another catastrophic injury behind that Jets offensive line, with a small shot at the playoffs, at his age, might be the end of his career. Unfortunately, the Jets wasted another year of elite defense because they couldn’t acquire a better option than Zach Wilson.

Pompei: The only win in Rodgers coming back at this point is Rodgers going where no one has gone. It would add to his legend. And it apparently means something to Rodgers. So the possibility should not be ruled out until Rodgers or coach Robert Saleh says it no longer exists. Rodgers didn’t work as hard as he has to surrender. Football players like Rodgers want to play, regardless of the circumstances. Personally, I’d love to see it.

Houston picked up a pivotal win today over fellow AFC wild-card contender Denver. Do you expect the Texans to make the playoffs, and if they do, is DeMeco Ryans the no-doubt NFL Coach of the Year?

Jones: Yes. No question. No one outside of Texans headquarters (and maybe even some on the inside) expected Houston to be any good this season. This was supposed to be a year of growing pains and lessons learned. Instead, Ryans has completely transformed this squad into a legitimate force.

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Give Ryans credit for his decision to bring offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik from San Francisco to Houston with him. Slowik was unproven, having never served as a play caller while working under coach Kyle Shanahan. But he clearly has a masterful command of the offense, quarterback development and game management. And Ryans also identified key veterans to bring in to help lead a young defense that he now has playing at a high level. Taking this team from one of the worst to a playoff squad would make Ryans a slam dunk for coach of the year. Heck, even if they narrowly miss the playoffs, I still think he’s deserving.

DEMECO IS ALL OF US RIGHT NOW 🗣️

— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) December 3, 2023

Nguyen: When you look at how bad the Texans have been in the last few years and how they are playing this year, I think you have to consider Ryans. Their offense has made massive strides with C.J. Stroud and Slowik, and though their defense doesn’t have a lot of talent, they play hard and are well-coached. Ryans has an excellent feel for how to take away what opposing quarterbacks want to do and how to surprise an offense with pressure. If we’re talking about the biggest impact, the award should go to Ryans, but of course, voters might just vote for one of the coaches from a top-seeded team.

Pompei: I’ll be surprised if the Texans are not a playoff team. The remaining schedule sets up nicely for them, Stroud continues to improve, and the Texans have built momentum. Ryans has done a remarkable job turning around a 3-13 team and is a viable candidate for coach of the year, but it’s too soon to say he should win the award. There are many possibilities at this point, including Miami’s Mike McDaniel, Jacksonville’s Doug Pederson, Philadelphia’s Nick Sirianni, Cleveland’s Kevin Stefanski and Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin.

GO DEEPER

Where will Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray play next year? Setting the stage for 2024 QB carousel

After a brutal 6-0 loss to the Chargers, it’s beginning to look like the 2-10 Patriots are going to land one of the coveted top two picks in the upcoming NFL Draft. If that happens, what are the chances owner Robert Kraft will allow coach Bill Belichick the opportunity to try and rebuild around Caleb Williams or Drake Maye?

Jones: It’s hard to say, but there will definitely be some long, hard conversations between Kraft and Belichick this offseason. I don’t think draft position matters. It depends on Kraft’s continued level of confidence in Belichick’s abilities as a talent evaluator, because the last several offseasons have featured numerous blunders from Belichick, the personnel chief.

Roster construction has been the biggest reason why the Patriots are so bad. It’s not that Belichick’s players don’t play hard or are undisciplined. New England has had swings and misses at crucial positions and also lacks the overall skill, speed and depth to compete. Would Belichick be willing to give up some power in this area to remain with the Patriots? Does he even have a desire to endure a continued rebuild? These are all questions Kraft must gain answers to before making his decision.

Nguyen: I feel like that decision won’t depend on this game or any other game this season. Either you believe Belichick didn’t have enough playmakers on offense and no quarterback to mold, or you think the game has passed him by. Sure it would be nice to see some sort of juice from Zappe, but it’s unlikely, and anyone who has watched this team knows that. If you’re banking on Zappe saving this offense to save Belichick’s job, he’s a dead man walking. I do think Kraft has to have a discussion about getting some new voices in the building, especially regarding the offensive coordinator who will work with a potential high draft pick.

Pompei: Kraft will likely make a judgment on Belichick/his future coach independent of the team’s draft slot, as he should. The Patriots need to have the best coach they can leading them through a rebuild and possibly developing a quarterback. Belichick can develop a quarterback, no question. The primary reason Kraft would move on from Belichick is he might believe he no longer is the coach he was. The secondary reason would be he believes the organization needs change. The third reason would be he doesn’t believe the 71-year-old will be around long enough to see a rebuild through.

(Photo of Dan Campbell: Mike Mulholland / Getty Images)