The New England Patriots’ lost season, which has crumbled into an abyss of irrelevancy, will be measured by a single factor.

Are they going to finish in a position to draft USC’s Caleb Williams or North Carolina’s Drake Maye? The two quarterback prospects are believed to have franchise-changing talent and are projected to be the first players off the board in the 2024 NFL Draft if they both declare.

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Patriots coach Bill Belichick benched quarterback Mac Jones on Sunday during a 10-6 loss to the Colts that sent the Patriots to 2-8. Jones had just tossed one of the worst interceptions of his three-year career with four minutes remaining, badly underthrowing tight end Mike Gesicki on a pass that should have resulted in an easy touchdown but never even reached the end zone. Bailey Zappe replaced Jones for the final drive and threw a head-scratching pick of his own.

Big moment. Bigger play.

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— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) November 12, 2023

Blame the Patriots’ quarterback issues on any number of things — coaching, scheme, performance, talent, confidence, personnel, whatever. The bottom line is the production isn’t good enough, and there’s very little evidence to suggest it’ll improve in 2024.

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Change is coming.

Belichick got a reprieve last offseason when he replaced Matt Patricia with offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien, but there could be more drastic moves on the horizon. At the very least, they need the offense to rejoin the 21st century, and the Patriots can accelerate that process if they draft Williams or Maye.

Williams’ playing style is reminiscent of Patrick Mahomes. The USC quarterback and reigning Heisman Trophy winner has great field vision, the arm and accuracy to match, and he can extend plays and create off-schedule. He has the prototypical playing style and is well-respected as a locker room leader, according to NFL evaluators.

There has been some concern over shaky ball security and the way Williams has responded to adversity during USC’s recent struggles, but teams will continue to learn more about him in the coming months.

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Maye has been described as a combination of Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. The 6-foot-4, 230-pounder has a massive arm and plays with physicality. His character and leadership traits are viewed in the highest regard. It’s not inconceivable to think Maye could be drafted before Williams.

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While Williams and Maye are viewed as potential franchise saviors, it’s no sure thing the Patriots will be in a position to draft one of them. They currently hold the third pick, so they’re in the conversation. But unless the Bears, who own Carolina’s selection, wind up with the first two picks, the chances of trading into the top two are slim to none. Those other rebuilding teams at the top of the draft are unlikely to pass over Williams and Maye. And if they do, it seems like a team is going to have to give up a historic package to trade up, even from No. 3.

If the Patriots miss out on Williams and Maye, the consolation prizes aren’t graded in the same stratosphere. Sure, team executives are intrigued by Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, Texas’ Quinn Ewers, LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, who seems likely to stay in school, and a handful of others, but there’s a sizable drop-off from the top tier to the next group.

The other alternative, if the Patriots can’t climb into the top two, would be drafting Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., Georgia tight end Brock Bowers or one of the elite offensive tackles. All would fill immediate needs.

But they wouldn’t fill the immediate need.

Jones had a promising rookie season, but Belichick failed him in 2022 without a suitable backup plan in the absence of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Belichick and Patricia rocked Jones’ confidence for myriad well-documented reasons.

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And now that it’s not working with O’Brien, who is running a hybrid of McDaniels’ offense and the Steve Sarkisian scheme Jones successfully operated at Alabama, the spotlight shifts to the quarterback.

Naturally, Jones would benefit from a better offensive line, a more balanced running game and a group of receivers who would actually scare defenses. Regardless of how talented a quarterback might be, it’s hard to expect success amid chaos. This season is not all Jones’ fault.

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But Sunday also marked the Patriots’ fifth loss when Jones and the offense failed to tie or take the lead with a late fourth-quarter possession. Scan through the league, and it’s easy to identify which quarterbacks deliver in these situations and which do not. Jones has not.

Belichick now has the bye week to assess the immediate future at the position. The Patriots briefly weighed their options at quarterback after getting blown out by the Cowboys and Saints, according to a league source, but Zappe, Malik Cunningham and Will Grier were viewed as clear downgrades from Jones.

If Zappe had done enough at practice to make it close, this might have been his job a month ago. It’s an indictment of Jones that the Patriots have considered other options for his job, but it’s an indictment of the other options that he’s kept it.

Belichick has attempted more subtle tactics to spark the locker room, from using a limited Cunningham package on offense to benching cornerbacks J.C. Jackson and Jack Jones on defense. A quarterback change is one of the few cards Belichick has left to play.

Of course, Belichick’s own job security is as tenuous as ever, and he might be thinking back to the 2000 season, which is the last time the Patriots were six games below .500. They went 3-3 to close out the season, and players and coaches from that team universally believed that finish better positioned them for 2001. Belichick might need to find similar magic over the next seven games to get another crack at the gig in 2024.

Owner Robert Kraft might have another memory in mind. A year before he bought the team — but had a business stake in the land around Foxboro Stadium and was still very much a fan — the Patriots were coming off a nightmare season that set them up to draft quarterback Drew Bledsoe with the first pick in 1993. They had been the worst-run franchise in the NFL, but the arrival of Bledsoe and coach Bill Parcells set off a chain reaction that changed everything.

Kraft doesn’t need Williams or Maye to be the next Tom Brady. (He wouldn’t object to the idea, of course.) He just needs a quarterback to inspire hope for the Patriots’ future.

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If the Patriots don’t finish the season with a top-two pick, their options become less inspiring:

1. Kraft could clean house with the coaching staff and task the new regime with salvaging Jones. They could decline his fifth-year option in the offseason to tab 2024 as the firm deadline on the experiment.

2. The Patriots could draft someone like Oregon’s Bo Nix in the second round and hope to improve their development process with whatever regime is in place. The idea of pairing Harrison, Bowers or a top-tier tackle with an early-ish pick at QB would signify a new era, particularly if Kraft opts for a new offensive-minded head coach.

3. The Patriots can go the veteran route. They could monitor Kyler Murray’s situation with the Cardinals and either attempt to trade for him or wait for his potential release. They could try to trade for Chicago’s Justin Fields, sign free-agent Kirk Cousins or Jimmy Garoppolo if/when he’s released.

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In the meantime, Belichick signaled a more imminent change that could be coming soon. If Zappe had executed the game-winning drive in Germany, there’s no way Belichick could have started Jones in two weeks against the Giants.

That's your ballgame.

📺 NFLN

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) November 12, 2023

But there’s also no way this was really a one-possession audition, right? Belichick has considered a move like this for too long, and the losses have continued to mount.

Whatever the case, the coaching regime doesn’t view Jones as a franchise cornerstone. That caliber of quarterback is not on the roster. So they must look to the future.

No, the Patriots aren’t tanking. They just aren’t a good team. And the best way to salvage something from a season like this is to finish with a top-two draft pick. For Kraft and Patriots fans alike, that would make all of this pain worth bearing.

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(Top photo: Alex Grimm / Getty Images)

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