This week I will look back at four recent draft classes and how my personal order of the players this season has changed since draft day. Today we start with the 2022 NHL Draft, which was a contentious draft right from the No. 1 pick. Players to be eligible for this exercise had to be actually drafted in the draft class mentioned, regardless of their first year of eligibility.

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Tier 1: Bubble NHL All-Star and Top of the Lineup Player

1. Juraj Slafkovsky, LW
2. David Jiricek, D
3. Logan Cooley, C

The 2022 NHL Draft had an uncertain top of the draft a year ago this time, and it remains uncertain. Slafkovsky remains my No. 1 player from the class, but it’s by a razor-tight margin between him and the next few players. The biggest change in this group is Jiricek elevating slightly after a very strong season between the AHL and world juniors. Jiricek’s skating will be a minor question with his NHL translatability, but he ticks every other box you want in a front-line defender. Cooley is right in the mix as well, and I could buy a reasonable argument for any of those three players as the best prospect from this draft class as it stands today.

Tier 2: Top of the Lineup Player

4. Shane Wright, C
5. Kevin Korchinski, D
6. Cutter Gauthier, C

Almost all of the top seven names a year later are still distinguished from the pack. Korchinski had an excellent season in Seattle and is a special skater to go with size and offense. Gauthier is a big, fast goal-scorer who projects to be a legit scorer versus men. Wright is a well-rounded center who projects to play a lot of NHL minutes. The gap between 4-6 in this class and 1-3 is smaller than in a typical year, and it wouldn’t surprise me if any of the names from Tier 2 eventually made their way into Tier 1, or vice versa.

Tier 3: Bubble Top and Middle of the Lineup Player

7. Simon Nemec, D
8. Pavel Mintyukov, D
9. Marco Kasper, C
10. Filip Bystedt, C
11. Owen Pickering, D
12. Lian Bichsel, D
13. Jimmy Snuggerud, RW
14. Jiri Kulich, C
15. Ivan Miroshnichenko, LW

Tier 3 is where it starts to get interesting as we see some notable movement from draft day. Specifically Pickering and especially Bystedt trended upwards significantly following strong post-draft seasons. They are both players who have all the tools for NHL success and were more consistent with their puck play than in their draft seasons.

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Jimmy Snuggerud and Jiri Kulich are also players who saw their prospect stocks rise after highly productive years in college and the AHL respectively.

The one semi-controversial placement here would be second overall pick Simon Nemec. I see the argument to have him in Tier 2, and he’s right on the bubble of being there. He’s very skilled and intelligent and projects to have a lot of offense as a pro. I debate whether his skating/skill combo is dynamic enough as a 6-0 defender to be a true top-end defense prospect but it’s reasonable to argue so. My lean now is no on that question.

Tier 4: Middle of the Lineup Player

16. Noah Ostlund, C
17. Joakim Kemell, RW
18. Conor Geekie, C
19. Matt Savoie, C
20. Rutger McGroarty, LW
21. Danila Yurov, RW
22. Frank Nazar, C
23. Maveric Lamoureux, D
24. Josh Filmon, LW
25. Lane Hutson, D
26. Brad Lambert, RW
27. Jani Nyman, RW
28. Reid Schaefer, LW
29. Owen Beck, C
30. Nathan Gaucher, C
31. Denton Mateychuk, D
32. Jonathan Lekkerimaki, RW
33. Liam Ohgren, LW

Everyone, between fans and people in the league, has strong opinions on the right way to rate Lane Hutson. Some scouts are big believers and think he’ll be the next small defenseman to make an impact in the NHL due to his elite skill and IQ. Because of his frame and non-elite skating, some are still skeptical that his game will translate despite his incredible freshman year in college. I’m somewhere in the middle. There are a lot of risks in projecting him to the NHL, but he’s so talented and has played so well that I would lean to betting on him making it over the alternative.

One high pick who ends up in Tier 4 is Matthew Savoie. He had a good year in the WHL but it’s fair to say he didn’t take the big step forward expected given his talent and track record. He’s a very skilled and quick forward who competes hard, but given his smaller frame, it’s become debatable whether his skill set is special for that frame or just good. My inclination is more toward the latter, which is still a very good pro prospect, but one who looks like a lot of mid-to-late first-round picks as opposed to a true premium prospect.

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One of the biggest risers from this draft from a year ago is Josh Filmon, who was a mid-round pick. Filmon was a top forward in the WHL last season, scoring 47 goals in 64 games. It’s not just the scoring, it’s the way he plays in a manner that could translate to the NHL that gets me excited about his potential. He’s a good-sized winger who skates well and gives a solid enough all-around effort to go with his skill and goal-scoring ability. The skating and size were apparent as a draft-eligible but the offense ticked up more than expected.

Tier 5: Projected to Play NHL Games

34. Cameron Lund, RW
35. Tristan Luneau, D
36. Marc-Andre Gaudet, D
37. Jordan Dumais, RW
38. Gavin Hayes, LW
39. Ryan Greene, C
40. Fraser Minten, C
41. Oskar Pettersson, RW
42. Matthew Poitras, C
43. Luca Del Bel Belluz, C
44. Amadeus Lombardi, C
45. Matyas Sapovaliv, C
46. Bryce McConnell-Barker, C
47. Seamus Casey, D
48. Mattias Havelid, D
49. Ty Nelson, D
50. Sam Rinzel, D
51. Noah Warren, D
52. Gleb Trikozov, RW
53. Artem Duda, D
54. Ludvig Jansson, D
55. Ryan Chesley, D
56. Jagger Firkus, RW
57. Dmitri Buchelnikov, LW
58. Viktor Neuchev, LW
59. Kirill Dolzhenkov, RW
60. Dennis Hildeby, G
61. Maksymilian Szuber, D
62. Alexander Perevalov, LW
63. Filip Mesar, RW
64. Arseni Koromyslov, D

A few later picks who have ticked up significantly over the last year for me are defenseman Marc-Andre Gaudet, and forwards Jordan Dumais, Gavin Hayes, Oskar Pettersson and Amadeus Lombardi.

On the flip side, I didn’t love the seasons from first-round picks Filip Mesar and Sam Rinzel. Mesar is a strong skater with good offensive skills, but he’s a smaller forward who gives inconsistent efforts and didn’t score in the OHL like I hoped he would. Rinzel’s physical tools jump out due to his frame and skating ability. He has some offense too, although I don’t know if he’s a natural puck-mover. His defensive play also needs a lot of refining. He has an NHL toolkit but he needs a lot of development time still.

Tier 6: Has a Chance to Play NHL Games

65. Miguel Tourigny, D
66. Adam Engstrom, D
67. Aleksanteri Kaskimaki, C
68. Julian Lutz, LW
69. Sandis Vilmanis, LW
70. Nikita Grebenkin, RW
71. Jeremy Langlois, D
72. Anton Johansson, D
73. Filip Nordberg, D
74. Adam Ingram, LW
75. Rieger Lorenz, LW
76. Miko Matikka, RW
77. Jordan Gustafson, C
78. Michael Buchinger, D
79. Gavin White, D
80. Elias Salomonsson, D
81. Jake Furlong, D
82. Marek Alscher, D
83. Matthew Morden, D
84. Frederic Brunet, D
85. Dylan James, LW
86. Servac Petrovsky, C
87. Quinn Finley, LW
88. Danny Zhilkin, LW
89. Samuel Savoie, LW
90. Connor Hvidston, LW
91. Dans Locmelis, C
92. Tucker Robertson, C
93. Ryan Hofer, C
94. David Spacek, D
95. David Gucciardi, D
96. Cruz Lucius, RW
97. Nicholas Moldenhauer, RW
98. Alexander Suzdalev, LW
99. Devin Kaplan, RW
100. Hunter Haight, C
101. Vinzenz Rohrer, C
102. Kenny Connors, C
103. Noah Laba, C
104. Christian Kyrou, D
105. Isaiah George, D
106. Tomas Hamara, D
107. David Goyette, C
108. Paul Ludwinski, C
109. Adam Sykora, LW
110. Vladimir Grudinin, D
111. Niklas Kokko, G
112. Emmett Croteau, G
113. Mason Beaupit, G
114. Samuel Jonsson, G
115. Sergey Murashov, G
116. Domenic Divincentiis, G
117. Topias Leinonen, G
118. Tyler Brennan, G
119. Alexis Gendron, RW
120. Matthew Seminoff, RW
121. Artem Barabosha, D

(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic. Photos: Bruce Bennett, David Kirouac, Josh Chadwick / Getty Images)