Red Sox roster examination: Who stays and who goes for 2024?

Ceddanne Rafaela has been on the Boston Red Sox roster for 24 days. In the first 13, he was in the starting lineup only twice. In the past 11, he’s started nine times. After a rare night off on Tuesday — the day after his 23rd birthday — Rafaela was back in the leadoff spot Wednesday as the Red Sox were officially eliminated from playoff contention via a 15-5 drubbing delivered by the Texas Rangers. The focus can now officially shift past this lost Red Sox season and on to next year and beyond.

At some point in the coming months, the Red Sox will hire a new head of baseball operations to replace Chaim Bloom. Their coaching staff seems certain to experience some turnover. Their Opening Day center fielder, shortstop, second baseman, designated hitter and starting pitcher are all either heading to free agency or already gone. Players like Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu and Nick Robertson are making their cases for big league jobs next season.

Crystal-ball gazing is a bit difficult without permanent front-office leadership in place, but the current roster has plenty of players who could continue to play key roles next season, play their way into bigger roles going forward, or else be cut loose or traded away this offseason.

Who’s most likely to stick around, and who has one foot out the door already?

Franchise cornerstones

1. Rafael Devers — He turns 27 next month, his 10-year extension kicks in next year, and he’s been the Red Sox’s best offensive player this season. Devers isn’t going anywhere for a long time.

2. Brayan Bello — At 24, he’s emerged as the de facto ace, leading the team in starts, innings, wins and ERA (though Wednesday’s eight-run debacle made it close in that last category) while ranking second in strikeouts. Bello could be the Opening Day starter next year and beyond.

3. Triston Casas — A shoulder injury ended his season prematurely, meaning Casas should finish his rookie campaign with 24 home runs, an .856 OPS and a potent second half that suggests he could be the team’s cleanup hitter for the foreseeable future.

Long-term commitments

4. Trevor Story — His bat has been slow to return, but Story’s defense at shortstop has been encouraging in his return from offseason elbow surgery. He might eventually move back to second base (there are four years left on his deal) but Story is the presumptive Opening Day shortstop for 2024.

5. Masataka Yoshida — In his first year outside of Japan, Yoshida seems to have worn down in the second half, but for most of the season he proved a capable big league hitter with on-base skills and decent pop. Might be worth giving him more time at designated hitter next season.

Under contract for one more year

Chris Sale’s deal ends after 2024. (Winslow Townson / Getty Images)

6. Chris Sale — When he signed his five-year extension in March of 2019, Sale was coming off seven straight All-Star selections and a World Series championship. In the four years since, he’s made just 54 starts and pitched to a 4.28 ERA. Next year is the last of his deal, and what to expect in terms of workload and performance is anyone’s guess. His high points are still awfully high, but his lows are frustrating and his injuries numerous.

7-8. Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin — Jansen turns 36 this month and Martin turns 38 next summer, but both have been good this season (especially Martin). Given decent bullpen depth, there might be logic in trading one of them this winter, but it seems likely they’ll be back.

9. Rob Refsnyder — The guy just keeps hitting lefties, which was enough for Refsnyder to sign a one-year extension — with a team option for 2025 — in the middle of the season. He has an on-base-heavy .825 OPS against lefties this season, providing balance the Red Sox need.

Earning their keep

10. Connor Wong — It wasn’t even a sure thing he’d make the team as a backup this spring, but Wong’s played his way into starter status with strong defense and a good enough bat at the position. The catcher position seems thin at the moment, and a sure upgrade might be hard to find and even harder to acquire (at least until first-rounder Kyle Teel is ready).

11. Jarren Duran — A touted prospect whose career was floundering after a couple of mostly disappointing seasons, Duran returned in April and for a while was just the boost the Red Sox needed to stay relevant. Improved defense and an .828 OPS has him clearly in the mix for a role next season, either as a regular in center field, in left field, or as a platoon against righties.

12. Josh Winckowski — For about two months, he was a pretty decent big league starter last year before fading significantly. This year he might have found a permanent home in the Red Sox bullpen as a multi-inning arm who can handle high-leverage situations.

13-14. John Schreiber, Brennan Bernardino — Schreiber did it last year, Bernardino did it this year. Both arrived as waiver-wire nobodies and pitched their way into key roles in the bullpen. No reason not to bring them back.

Role to be determined

15-17. Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, Kutter Crawford — For obvious reasons, these three fall into the same bucket. Are they starters? Are they relievers? Could the next person in charge leverage such redundancy by trading one of them? Clearly, these three should be important for what comes next, we just don’t know how exactly that importance is going to play out.

18-19. Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu — It’s premature to say they’ve earned their keep, but Rafaela and Abreu have played well enough for long enough — first in Triple A and now in the big leagues — to easily picture them playing important roles next season, either off the bench, in the lineup, or as next-in-line depth. They might not make the Opening Day roster, and a new general manager might want to trade one of them for a more proven alternative, but Rafaela and Abreu seem sure to impact the 2024 Red Sox at some point in one way or another.

What’s the alternative?

Alex Verdugo has been a solid regular during his time in Boston. (Nathan Ray Seebeck / USA Today)

20-21. Nick Pivetta, Alex Verdugo — Very different players, obviously, but both are in the same curious situation. Both are entering their final year of arbitration eligibility and while each one has been important — and at times very good — neither has been consistent enough to suggest a long-term extension is a priority. The easiest decision is to simply award one last arbitration raise and see what happens next year, but if the next head of baseball operations can find another right fielder or a more reliable fourth starter, it would be hard to dismiss the possibility of a trade.

22. Reese McGuire — This will be McGuire’s second round of arbitration, meaning he’ll be in line for a modest raise on his current $1.23-million salary. He’s a reliable enough backup, especially as a platoon candidate, to think he’ll be back barring a significant addition behind the plate.

23. Pablo Reyes — This guy started the year on the Triple-A roster of the Oakland A’s and might have played his way into being the presumptive favorite to open next season as the Red Sox utility infielder. He’s a versatile defender who’s provided good at-bats against lefties. Who’s a better alternative off the bench, especially at essentially the league minimum?

24. Luis Urías — A bigger name than Reyes, but a harder decision. Urías is making $4.7 million this season, and he’s owed a raise in arbitration. He’s been decent since coming over at the trade deadline, but is he going to be worth more than $5 million next season? Is a non-tender more likely? The in-house alternatives at second base (aside from Reyes) are left-handed hitters Enmanuel Valdez and David Hamilton, who might be better used as Triple-A depth or as trade chips.

25-26. Chris Murphy, Brandon Walter — Could the Red Sox trade one of them? Sure. But Murphy pitched well enough after moving to the bullpen, and Walter pitched well enough in the second half, to think both could be viable spot starters or long relief depth next season.

27. Nick Robertson — The primary return in the Kiké Hernández trade, Robertson didn’t do much when he first arrived but he’s pitched well enough lately — if we ignore Wednesday — to assume he’ll be useful bullpen depth next season. Just a question of whether he makes the team out of camp or bounces back and forth from Triple A.

Plenty of alternatives

28-34. Zack Kelly, Mauricio Llovera, et al. — Kelly and Llovera are the most prominent names on a long list of relief pitchers (Kaleb Ort, Joe Jacques, Zack Weiss, Justin Garza, Wyatt Mills and others) who could be released or non-tendered but otherwise could serve as bullpen depth next season. Most will probably be DFA eventually to open 40-man roster spots, but some might return. Most interesting of the bunch might be Bryan Mata, a notable 24-year-old prospect who’s never pitched in the big leagues, spent most of this season in the IL, and will be out of options next season.

35. Bobby Dalbec — He’s back in the big leagues now, but Dalbec spent most of the season banished to Triple A where he mashed 33 homers while playing four different positions. Maybe another head of baseball operations will want to give him another shot, but Dalbec seems a classic change-of-scenery candidate either as a minor trade chip or as fodder for the waiver wire.

One foot out the door

36. Justin Turner — Turner has an option to return next season, but after a tremendous year — both at the plate and in the clubhouse — he’s more likely to take a massive buyout and hit free agency. Turner was incredibly popular with seemingly everyone in the organization. Will the next person in charge have any interest in bringing him back at age 39?

37. Adam Duvall — When Story needed surgery, the Red Sox pivoted to Duvall to play up the middle and provide some right-handed power. He was streaky and missed time with a wrist injury, but the production was still pretty good, and his hot streaks were legitimately incredible. He turned 35 this month.

38. Joely Rodriguez — The first major signing of the offseason pitched just 11 innings because of various injuries. He was looking really good before he went on the injured list for the last time.

39. James Paxton — At one point, it seemed legitimately possible the Red Sox would give Paxton a qualifying offer, but he really struggled after the trade deadline and will finish the season on the IL after just 96 innings. Hard to count on him next year.

40. Corey Kluber — The Red Sox weren’t expecting Kluber to be at his career best, but after 31 starts and a 4.34 ERA last season, the Red Sox felt Kluber could at least provide some rotation stability. He instead pitched to a 7.04 ERA, lost his rotation job and spent the last three months on the IL.

(Top photo of Bello: John E. Sokolowski / USA Today)