Sharks NHL Draft Lottery rooting guide: Connor Bedard is the dream, Anaheim is the fear

The weeks of anticipation since the end of the regular season are finally going to be over.

Connor Bedard is going to find out where his NHL career will begin Monday night. The 2023 NHL Draft Lottery is going to be one of the most important events in recent San Jose Sharks history, regardless of the outcome.

San Jose has a 9.5 percent chance to land Bedard. We could call it the No. 1 pick, but there hasn’t been such a clear-cut No. 1 selection in the draft since at least Auston Matthews and probably Connor McDavid.

The Sharks also have a 9.5 percent chance of landing the No. 2 pick, which is expected to be Adam Fantilli. He is the most-hyped No. 2 prospect in a draft class since Jack Eichel went second after McDavid.

Additional reading:

Fantilli also just had the best NCAA season for a freshman since at least Eichel — who played at Boston University for Sharks coach David Quinn — and was the first to win the Hobey Baker since the Golden Knights star.

The next two players on the board have been Matvei Michkov and Leo Carlsson for much of this process, though Will Smith has made a late push after a dominant showing at the U18 world championships. Michkov is the wild card, because he’s under contract in the KHL for three more seasons after this one.

San Jose has a 15.4 percent chance of staying put and landing the No. 4 selection, but also a nearly two-thirds chance (65.4 percent) of slipping back to either fifth or even sixth after the two lottery picks are determined.

Here’s a great primer for how the process works from The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline.

Here are the latest draft rankings from The Athletic’s experts:

Corey Pronman’s May ranking

Scott Wheeler’s May ranking

What should Sharks fans be rooting for beyond NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly saying, “the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NHL draft belongs to San Jose?” We are going to rank the outcomes of the first lottery drawing, which will determine where Bedard plays next season, from 1-16.

1. San Jose

Obviously. There will be 1,000 different four-number combinations in play. Ninety-five of them lead to the Sharks landing the No. 1 pick.

This would send Bedard to the Eastern Conference and not push the Sharks down the order. Of all the most likely scenarios, the Blue Jackets getting the top pick works pretty well for San Jose.

This certainly wouldn’t be ideal, but Bedard would be out of the division and that’s one team not passing the Sharks.

There are no “good” options after Columbus and Chicago. It is basically seven teams that can push San Jose down to No. 5 or No. 6 if the Sharks don’t win the second lottery, plus six teams that would seal the No. 1 pick for Anaheim.

Washington is the best of the lot, because the Capitals have the worst prospect pool among the clubs in the 5-11 range. Bedard would help Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom and company stay relevant for another couple of seasons, but there isn’t going to be a lot of young talent to help build around Bedard during the second half of this decade when the Sharks might be ready to compete for the Stanley Cup as well.

The Flyers are kind of in no man’s land in the East. Getting Bedard is a huge step in the right direction, but does anyone trust Philadelphia to make the right decisions around him?

Neither of these are good, unless the Sharks also win the other lottery pick. If San Jose gets the No. 2 selection, it would be fine if one of these two clubs lands Bedard.

That said, Bedard going to one of these two franchises is going to make them a real problem for the rest of the league. Detroit has one of the best collections of young players and prospects in the East outside of New Jersey, and getting Bedard almost immediately makes the Red Wings a potential monster for the rest of the decade.

And while Montreal might not have the prospect depth that Detroit possesses, it already has young NHL stars in place. Bedard and Cole Caufield on opposite flanks of a power play would be terrifying.

Either of these teams would also pass the Sharks if they don’t claim the other lottery pick, and it would keep Bedard in the West. But not one of the two division rivals where the Sharks really don’t want him to land.

The Blues are kind of a weird group at the moment, but Bedard might help Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas and company reload in a hurry. And this team isn’t quite as old as the other fading powers.

The Coyotes have been rebuilding forever, but Bedard plus Logan Cooley plus a few of the other interesting young players they have plus an insane war chest of draft capital could make Arizona a potential dynasty in the making. Bedard probably makes any lingering issues with getting the new arena approved, and that probably makes the financial issues go away and then … look out.

This would be pretty bad. The Canucks moving up from No. 11 to No. 1 (or 2, for that matter) would be a tough beat for the Sharks. They could fall back a spot in the draft, and also have Bedard in the division.

Vancouver’s roster management has been a bit of a mess, but Bedard, Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes could challenge Edmonton and Colorado for the best cores in the conference right now, and they’re all young enough to make Vancouver a powerhouse for a decade.

On one hand, either of these clubs winning the first lottery helps the Sharks. The Predators and Flames can only move up 10 spots, so they would climb to No. 5 (Nashville) or No. 6 (Calgary). That would make San Jose halfway to sticking at No. 4, with the possibility of moving up to No. 2.

On the other hand, if Daly does not unveil Calgary, Nashville, Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Ottawa in order to start the proceedings, that means Anaheim is getting Bedard. Those five teams can only move up 10 slots as part of the new lottery rules. But also, if a team that is currently in the 12-16 range wins the first lottery, the worst team gets locked in at No. 1.

13. Pittsburgh

This would hurt, because Anaheim gets Bedard and the Sharks get pushed down a slot unless they win the second lottery. The Penguins are ahead of the next two teams because they are like Washington – their core is old, and their prospect pipeline is barren.

While it would be a fascinating storyline for the NHL to have the Penguins at No. 4 in this draft – do they trade the pick for immediate help? Do they take a player more likely to help right now than three years from now? — it would be a bad beat for the Sharks.

14. Buffalo

15. Ottawa

Either of these two franchises winning the first lottery would be a triple whammy. First, it guarantees Bedard plays for the Ducks. Second, it pushes the Sharks down a spot unless they win the second lottery.

And even though this is certainly less of a concern for the Sharks right now, third … both of these teams are emerging powers in the NHL with exciting young cores. Adding Fantilli in Buffalo could make the Sabres a “Pittsburgh/Tampa Bay at their peaks” level bully in the years to come.

If San Jose does build a Stanley Cup contender at some point by the end of this decade, Buffalo or Ottawa (or Detroit) with Fantilli could be the final boss in between them and a first championship. Even worse for Sharks fans, watching Bedard help Tim Stützle and Josh Norris win the Stanley Cup, regardless of when San Jose is a contender again, could be a tough scene.

For what it’s worth, there is a 0.3 percent chance for the Sharks to end up third, but it’s a very specific sequence. Ottawa wins the first lottery and moves up to No. 2. That locks in Anaheim at No. 1, and then the winner of the second lottery (in this scenario, San Jose) actually gets the No. 3 selection.

16. Anaheim

Technically, Vancouver could be worse because Anaheim getting a top-two pick doesn’t push San Jose backwards. But the problem is … the Ducks adding another potential superstar. And that’s why all of the roads to Anaheim getting the Bedard are at the bottom of this order.

Anaheim already has Trevor Zegras, Mason McTavish, Jamie Drysdale and the best collection of defense prospects in the league. Bedard landing in Orange County is like Colorado getting Cale Makar when it already had Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen.

The Ducks become the clear emerging superpower in the West. The Sharks have to deal with both Connors (Bedard and McDavid) in the division, and it could leave San Jose well behind both California rivals for … a while.

If the Sharks were able to secure the No. 2 pick, that would be awesome for the league to set up a Bedard-Fantilli rivalry. But it would still be tough for Sharks fans to swallow if Bedard ends up six hours south of here.

(Photo of Bill Daly: Mike Stobe / NHLI via Getty Images)