“We’ll be back.”

— Bryce Harper, after the Phillies’ National League Championship Series loss to Arizona

Memo to Bryce Harper: It’s hard to get back. It’s not impossible. It’s not unprecedented. But it’s hard. And the realization of just how hard is firmly implanted in the consciousness of the Phillies’ front office as they begin one of the toughest jobs in sports — building another win-the-World Series roster after a second straight painful postseason ending.

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“It is hard,” Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told The Athletic during the NLCS. “And the proof is, hardly any clubs are doing it, right? They’re not going back to the World Series.”

Right? Right. We’re now up to 23 years since any team won two World Series in a row. That’s the longest stretch without a repeat champion in the history of the four major North American sports. So how hard is it? That hard.

And even more challenging for the 2024 Phillies is this little tidbit: Since the dawn of division play in 1969, only one team — the 2004-05-06 Cardinals — has done what the Phillies will attempt to do:

Lose one World Series … make it back to the next LCS and fall short again … then grind through a third season and, finally, win it all.

So how hard is it? That hard.

“Sometimes,” Dombrowski would say, later in the same conversation, “just the repetition of going for what you did the year before and not getting it accomplished, you can take a step back.”

And so, as the Phillies’ offseason blueprint begins to take shape, the difficulty of their mission statement is not lost on Dombrowski, general manager Sam Fuld or owner John Middleton. They have challenging decisions ahead, and a game plan that isn’t nearly as clear-cut as last winter’s, when they targeted (and signed) Trea Turner as a free agent, right out of the starting blocks.

So where might the offseason road lead them? Here’s a rough idea, formed from conversations with Phillies officials, rival clubs and agents.

WILL NOLA RETURN? Aaron Nola has thrown more than 22,000 pitches in his nine-year career, every one of them for the Phillies. But will he ever throw another?

Dombrowski has called re-signing him the Phillies’ No. 1 priority. But in reality, their first order of business this winter isn’t necessarily signing Nola, as he heads into his age-31 season. It’s figuring out, as soon as possible, whether they can sign him.

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Oh, it’s obviously doable for a team that already has five players on nine-figure free-agent contracts. But it’s fascinating how convinced rival teams are that the Phillies are not firing up the engines to go all out to win this particular bidding war.

And one reason for that is the clues the Phillies dropped when they didn’t get Nola signed to an extension in spring training.

It’s impossible to know the details of those negotiations with Nola and his agent, Joe Longo of Paragon Sports. But here’s an educated ballpark guess on where the two sides stood back then:

It’s reasonable to think that the Phillies’ initial offer was in the range of six years, $150 million (which averages out to $25 million a year). That’s actually higher than the six-year, $125 million deal that The Athletic’s Jim Bowden predicted for Nola this winter.

But according to multiple major-league sources, the two sides were not even remotely close back then. That would seem to indicate that Nola’s side was looking for a seven-year extension for north of $200 million, possibly well north. That would put Nola’s valuation of his potential worth at roughly $30 million a year, give or take a couple of million.

Is that a fair request? Since 2014, four pitchers have signed deals for exactly seven guaranteed years and at least $200 million. See how you think Nola compares:

Stephen Strasburg (2020-26): seven years, $245 million ($35M AAV)
David Price (2016-22): seven years, $217 million ($31M AAV)
Clayton Kershaw* (2014-20): seven years, $215 million ($30.7M AAV)
Max Scherzer (2015-21): seven years, $210 million ($30M AAV)

(*extension)

Three of those pitchers — Scherzer, Kershaw and Price — had Cy Young Award trophies on their shelves. Strasburg had just won a World Series MVP Award. Nola, as dependably excellent as he has been for a long time, possesses none of the above.

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But Nola does rank second to only Gerrit Cole in innings pitched over the past seven seasons. And Nola is one of just five starters who has been worth at least 30 WAR over those seven seasons, according to Baseball Reference. The others: Scherzer, Cole, Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander.

The Phillies have seen all of that with their own eyes. Yet they still weren’t motivated this spring to bridge a gap that was presumably in the range of $50 million to $75 million. The question, then, is this: Are they more likely to do that now?

Rival executives say they wouldn’t be surprised to see the bidding for Nola push him to a seven-year deal, likely at a higher average annual value than what the Phillies offered last spring. So are the Phillies willing to go there, when they also have an extension for Zack Wheeler looming (with Wheeler a year from free agency now)? Too soon to say. But don’t touch that dial.

IF NOT NOLA, THEN WHAT? According to major-league sources who attended the GM meetings last week, the Phillies were already busy laying the groundwork for Life Without Nola, if it comes to that.

They made contact with a number of teams that could trade a starting pitcher this winter. They also touched base with agents for a long list of free-agent starters — and not necessarily just the ace types.

It makes sense for the Phillies to rank Jordan Montgomery and 25-year-old Orix Buffaloes rock star Yoshinobu Yamamoto at the top of their shopping list, along with pitching coach Caleb Cotham’s former college teammate at Vanderbilt, Sonny Gray. But even if Nola goes elsewhere, the Phillies still have a legit ace in Wheeler … and another potential difference-maker coming, in MLB Pipeline’s 2022 minor-league pitcher of the year, right-hander Andrew Painter, who should return from Tommy John surgery in 2025.

So they are telling agents and other clubs they’re open to multiple scenarios to replace Nola’s innings and presence. If Corbin Burnes, Tyler Glasnow or Shane Bieber get traded, it’s unimaginable that Dombrowski wouldn’t be in that mix. But the Phillies also have enough depth concerns that they would seem more likely to sign a non-ace-type free agent (or two) than to blow out their farm system to trade for an ace approaching free agency.

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But here’s one often-rumored name they appear to be just lukewarm on. That’s the likely NL Cy Young, Blake Snell, whose walk rate, inconsistency and lack of year-in, year-out volume make him almost the diametric opposite of Nola. However, if Nola hits the exit ramp and Yamamoto goes to a team with a richer history with Japanese players, Snell could still be in play.

WHO’S THE CLOSER? The talk shows in Philly are beating the percussion section for free agent Josh Hader. But don’t make that bet.

Remember a year ago, when the Phillies signed Craig Kimbrel but told him they didn’t envision anointing anyone as “the ninth-inning guy”? That appears to be their approach again this winter. So that would be a clear non-starter for Hader, who hasn’t thrown a regular-season pitch before the ninth inning since 2021.

That means the Phillies seem ready to empower manager Rob Thomson to mix and match his way through the late innings again, with the hardest-throwing bullpen in baseball. They’ll be shopping for live bullpen arms to add to that mix. But they haven’t shown interest so far in adding a traditional closer — especially because their minor-league pitcher of the year, Orion Kerkering, appears positioned to be a major back-of-the-bullpen presence as soon as next year.

WHAT ABOUT THE LINEUP? Those Nick Castellanos trade rumblings bounced around the GM meetings — and while Castellanos probably won’t end up going anywhere, enough major-league execs have vouched for them that no one should believe they’re pure fiction.

Clearly, the Phillies let it be known they were open to dealing the free-swinging Castellanos, who chased nearly 46 percent of pitches outside the strike zone in the postseason. That was the highest rate of any hitter who got at least 40 postseason plate appearances. But the question is: Is that a quality other teams would look at as a selling point for a guy with three years and $60 million remaining on a five-year, $100 million deal?

“I’d be shocked if someone called on him, to be honest, because that’s just not a good contract,” one rival executive said. “And I’d guess that if somebody did, they’d say yes in five seconds.”

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But does that mean the Phillies will just run the same lineup out there in 2024 that batted .175 (11 for 63, with 21 strikeouts) against Arizona in Games 6 and 7 of the NLCS? That, too, seems unlikely.

The Phillies could trade from their inventory of young outfielders to add pitching. They’ll be shopping for a right-handed-hitting corner outfielder who could be part of the left-field mix. And all you students of recent front-office history should know that it’s not Dombrowski’s style to just run it back, no matter how many games his team won the year before.

Remember his 2011-14 Tigers? They finished first in the AL Central in four straight seasons, made it to the American League Championship Series three times and to the World Series once … and here are the big-name bats Dombrowski added the next offseason:

After 2011: Prince Fielder
After 2012: Torii Hunter
After 2013: J.D. Martinez
After 2014: Yoenis Cespedes

So who could be the 2024 equivalent of that group for the Phillies? Hunter Renfroe? Adam Duvall? Eddie Rosario? Whit Merrifield? The Phillies have several days of meetings this week with their pro scouts to kick around questions like that one. But there is one thing the baseball world knows well about Dave Dombrowski:

He is never done shopping.

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(Top photo of Aaron Nola: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)