On paper, this matchup favors the 49ers. This San Francisco team has been here multiple times, it has home-field advantage, and star receiver Deebo Samuel—who exited last week with a shoulder injury—is set to play.

San Francisco also has the more complete defense, while Detroit has struggled to contain opposing passers.

However, the Lions do two things well that can allow them to pull the upset. With Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, Detroit can control the game on the ground. With one of the better defensive fronts in football, the Lions can also stop the run.

San Francisco has struggled to slow the run at times this season, and it was battered by Aaron Jones and the Green Bay Packers last week. The 49ers largely won that game because Jordan Love's errant passes were picked, while Brock Purdy's potential interceptions were dropped.

Purdy may have to carry the 49ers offense in this one because Detroit can limit Christian McCaffrey as a runner. The big question is whether Purdy can play a cleaner game than Lions QB Jared Goff.

Goff has been prone to mistakes under pressure this season, but he also has more postseason experience than Purdy. He helped lead the Los Angeles Rams to the Super Bowl during the 2018 season. This game could hinge on Detroit's ability to run and stop the run.

If Detroit can control the line of scrimmage, it can reach the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.

Prediction: Detroit 29, San Francisco 27

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