The Football Scientist’s undervalued, overvalued ADPs: A.J. Brown, Christian Watson and more

Fantasy football drafts are all about getting the maximum bang for your buck with every selection. Metrics can be a huge help with this, especially when they identify players whose ADP value is higher or lower than it should be.

To help you get that bang for your buck, I’ve dissected the numbers to find a group of players with metrics indicating their ADP level is misplaced, be it too high or too low.

Each review will start with the player’s aggregate ADP in full PPR format (per FantasyPros), the round that aggregate ADP places them in a 12-team format, the player’s round value according to my 2023 draft guide (available here), and the metrics that are positively or negatively impacting that player’s value.

Quarterback

Derek Carr, NO

Aggregate ADP: 146
Aggregate ADP round: 12-13
The Football Scientist’s round value: 10
Metrics impacting his value: Vertical and stretch vertical passing

Carr was one of the best passers in 2022 at the vertical (aerials traveling 11+ yards downfield) and stretch vertical (passes with 20+ air yards) levels, as he ranked sixth and fourth, respectively, in those categories. Add him to an offense with Chris Olave (11th in vertical PPR PPG last year), Rashid Shaheed (13th in stretch vertical PPR PPG), Michael Thomas and Juwan Johnson and it means Carr should deliver strong QB2-caliber points in 2023.

Running Back

David Montgomery, DET

Aggregate ADP: 83
Aggregate ADP round: 7-8
TFS round value: 4-5
Metrics impacting his value: Goal line carries, receptions

Detroit almost certainly will be using Jahmyr Gibbs as a Christian McCaffrey-type of utility back. That will leave carries available for Montgomery, and that should include goal line work, as he is only two years removed from finishing tied for seventh in the league in rushes inside the 5-yard line and tied for 10th in rush touchdowns in that area of the field. Combine that with Montgomery having posted 155 receptions over the past four years and he has enough across the board value to easily outplay his current Round 7-8 ADP.

Jerick McKinnon, KC

Aggregate ADP: 120
Aggregate ADP round: 10-11
TFS round value: 9-10
Metrics impacting his value: Big play pace; good blocking rate

McKinnon has shown big-play ability throughout his career and that showed up again last season when he was second among running backs (min. 100 touches) in percentage of plays that gained 10+ yards. Kansas City also has one of the best run blocking walls in the league, as last year this group tallied a superb 46.8 percent mark in my good blocking rate metric that measures how often a blocking wall gives a ball carrier quality run blocking. Merge those factors with a fairly favorable schedule (the Chiefs don’t battle a red-rated rush defense until Week 14), and it gives McKinnon higher than expected fantasy value.

Wide Receiver

Christian Watson, GB

Aggregate ADP: 55
Aggregate ADP round: 5
TFS round value: 7
Metric impacting his value: Reception volume

No one doubts Watson’s impact play ability that led to his ranking 25th in non-PPR and 41st in PPR points at WRin his rookie campaign last season, but he’s now trying to replicate those figures with an unproven quarterback. That’s enough to make one think twice about Watson’s borderline WR2/WR3 value, but a risk element that may be just as significant is that Watson has caught a grand total of 146 receptions over his five-year college and pro career. To be fair, Watson added 56 rushes to his workload in that span, but it’s still far from a given that he can generate a large catch volume. That makes him too reliant on long passes from a first year starting quarterback and means that his ADP is couple of rounds too high.

A.J. Brown, PHI

Aggregate ADP: 14
Aggregate ADP round: 1-2
TFS round value: 1
Metrics impacting his value: Everything

DeVonta Smith, PHI

Aggregate ADP: 26
Aggregate ADP round: 2-3
TFS round value: 2
Metrics impacting his value: Late season production spike

Brown excels on long passes, as he was fourth in vertical PPR PPG and third in stretch vertical PPR PPG, and rates well on dink-and-dunk passes as evidenced by a No. 21 ranking in short PPR PPG last year. He’s also a workhorse wideout, having racked up 88 receptions on 145 targets in 2022. Brown is the Eagles’ top red zone and inside the 10-yard line pass catcher, which is key to his posting nine or more touchdowns in three of his four NFL seasons.

Smith also fared well in every route depth level last year, as he was in the Top 26 in short, vertical, stretch vertical, and overall PPR PPG. Smith topped the SEC with 117 receptions in 2020, so he can handle whatever target volume the Eagles want to send him. Philadelphia took full advantage of that late last year, as Smith averaged a ridiculous 22.3 PPR PPG over the final six games of the 2022 campaign.

Philadelphia head coach Nick Sirianni is a former wide receiver who would like to lean more on the passing game, and with the development of Brown, Smith, and Jalen Hurts, he will be able to do so in 2023. That means the Eagles offense can support dual WR1 candidates, a factor that is not reflected in the respective ADPs of Brown and Smith.

Drake London, ATL

Aggregate ADP: 66
Aggregate ADP round: 6
TFS round value: 5
Metrics impacting his value: 2022 production with Desmond Ridder

London generated 54.3 PPR points in the four games that Desmond Ridder started for Atlanta last year. Prorate that over a 17-game season and it equals 231 PPR points, a total that would have fallen just outside of the WR1 tier in 2022. London is being primed as the top pass catcher on this club and accounted for 32.1 percent of the Falcons targets inside the 10-yard line, so there is mid-tier WR2 value and borderline elite upside for a player who can be selected in Round 6 in most drafts.

Adam Thielen, CAR

Aggregate ADP: 130
Aggregate ADP round: 11-12
TFS round value: 10-11
Metrics impacting his value: Overall and red zone reception volume

Only 20 wide receivers have caught more passes than Thielen over the past three seasons. Thielen lost his primary red zone and inside the 10-yard line role in Minnesota last year, but he still placed second on the club in targets, receptions, and touchdowns in both of those areas of the field in 2022. Carolina’s receiving corps is largely unproven/unreliable, and Thielen was brought in to remedy that. It should be enough to make Thielen a borderline WR3/WR4, yet he can be claimed as late as Round 12 in most draft rooms.

Jakobi Meyers, LV

Aggregate ADP: 144
Aggregate ADP round: 12-13
TFS round value: 9-10
Metrics impacting his value: Route depth level PPR PPG

Fantasy managers seem to have an aversion to Meyers, but the metrics indicate this shouldn’t be the case, as last year Meyers was 18th in stretch vertical PPR PPG, 22nd on vertical PPR PPG, and 33rd in that category on short passes. Meyers knows the Josh McDaniels system and ranked second in red zone targets last season in New England, so he should be able to hit the ground running. Meyers was a WR3 candidate in all scoring formats in 2022 yet has fallen to the back end of drafts, thus making him a strong upside candidate for a very low draft day investment.

Tight End

Darren Waller, NYG

Aggregate ADP: 54
Aggregate ADP round: 5
TFS round value: 8-9
Metrics impacting his value: Games played, short PPR PPG, schedule

Fantasy managers seem convinced that Waller can return to his 2019 and 2020 TE1 form, but he’s missed 14 games over the past two campaigns and is headed into his age-31 season. Waller may be the best pass catcher on the Giants, but he is coming off a season in which he ranked 35th in short PPR PPG. New York also has the most difficult tight end pass coverage schedule in the league, which means Waller is projected to face nine red-rated pass coverage matchups in the first 15 weeks of the season. The potential for a low floor makes Waller better suited as a mid-tier TE1 and deems him too risky for a fifth-round selection.

(Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports)