Wisconsin football mailbag: Will Braelon Allen leave for the draft? What’s up with the O-line?
Carter Sullivan Wisconsin is coming off a 24-10 loss to Ohio State and enters the last month of the regular season locked in a four-way tie for first place in the Big Ten West. You had questions for the Badgers mailbag about where things stand. Let’s get to it.
Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Are there any sites that track drops or drop rate, and how do Badger receivers compare to other Power 5 teams? — Thad N.
It’s been pretty obvious to anyone who has watched Wisconsin this season that the Badgers have had an issue with dropped passes. But going to the advanced stats this week revealed just how serious a problem it has been so far. According to Pro Football Focus, Wisconsin has been credited with 22 dropped passes, including six against Ohio State last Saturday. Those 22 dropped passes are the most in the Big Ten and tied for the sixth-most in the country. Here’s a breakdown of the rest of the Big Ten.
Drop rate generally is a good measure to use because it evens the playing field when comparing teams who throw the ball differing amounts. And while Wisconsin is throwing the ball more in its Air Raid system, its drop rate of 8.2 percent ranks 120th in the country (or the 14th-worst), according to TruMedia. Three Big Ten teams have worse drop rates: Iowa (9.8 percent), Nebraska (9.3 percent) and Penn State (8.3 percent).
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No Wisconsin player has struggled more with drops than slot receiver Skyler Bell, whose six total drops are tied for the most in the Big Ten with Indiana’s Jaylin Lucas and Minnesota’s Brevyn Spann-Ford. Bell was credited with four drops in the past two games — two against Illinois and two against Ohio State. He mishandled a third-and-6 throw just in front of the first-down marker on the right sideline with Wisconsin trailing 17-10 early in the fourth quarter, and the Badgers were forced to punt. He later dropped a first-and-10 pass from midfield along the left sideline.
When there’s a WILL there’s a way 🙌
— Wisconsin Football (@BadgerFootball) October 29, 2023
Bell has shown his playmaking ability in spurts. He had a good redshirt freshman season last year when he caught 30 passes for 444 yards and five touchdowns. He made a great catch on a 16-yard touchdown pass from Tanner Mordecai against Washington State and caught a critical 30-yard over-the-shoulder pass from Braedyn Locke down to the 5-yard line late against Illinois in a comeback victory.
Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell was asked this week whether he expected his receivers to have caught more of the passes that they got their hands on against Ohio State.
“Yeah, I expect my 9-year-olds at home, if they touch the ball to catch it,” Fickell said. “That’s what we say: You touch it, you clutch it. But we all know that there’s going to be things that happen and you’ve got to be able to move on. I think some of the ones that have caused us a little bit more anxiety or angst is in the big situations, the third-down stuff that you’re hoping and expecting those guys to maybe come down with it. But you’ve got to be able to move forward.
“You’ve got to be able to continue to build confidence, to continue to give them their opportunities and their chances. …When you get a game like that where the margin of error is really minimal, the length on the other side and the athleticism on the other side is different than maybe you see every single week, the windows are tighter, the balls are going to have to be thrown a little bit harder. I think those are all things that you practice but you probably don’t actually recognize and realize until you get into those games (and) it becomes a lot more difficult.”
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Given the “talent” of the receiver room, shouldn’t the drops at some point dictate a restructure of the depth chart? — Jacob S.
Bell’s inconsistency puts Wisconsin in a bind that could lead to more opportunities for reserve slot receiver Vinny Anthony. Bell has played 285 offensive snaps this season and Anthony 20, per PFF. That’s really the only depth chart restructuring I can envision as a result of drops, because Bell’s percentage of dropped passes from on-target throws is way too high for someone utilized that often (19.4 percent).
Receiver Will Pauling has four drops, but he’s also been targeted more than any other Badgers player and is the go-to playmaker at the position. Wisconsin has its top group with Bryson Green and Chimere Dike on the outside and Pauling in the slot, with Bell rotating in at the slot position. CJ Williams has been the top reserve on the outside, with Quincy Burroughs moving into a backup role following the transfer of Keontez Lewis. Dike sustained a right leg injury against Ohio State, and Fickell didn’t have an update on his status earlier in the week, so that could create more snaps for Williams or Burroughs. But that seems to be the group Wisconsin is going with at this stage.
Which players were thought to go to the NFL early after this year, and what are your thoughts if they have shown it this year? — Carl T.
The two potential early entries to the 2024 NFL Draft that generated the most discussion before this season were running back Braelon Allen and left tackle Jack Nelson. Our NFL Draft guru at The Athletic, Dane Brugler, listed Allen over the summer as his No. 2 draft-eligible running back behind Michigan’s Blake Corum and as the No. 1 draft-eligible underclassman at the position. Brugler rated Nelson as the sixth-best draft-eligible underclassman among offensive tackles.
Allen has 754 rushing yards on 5.8 yards per carry with eight touchdowns this season but is once again battling an injury, this time a left leg injury sustained against Ohio State. Fickell did not provide an update on Allen’s status earlier this week. Nelson has been uneven and surrendered a pair of strip-sacks against Washington State, and he has also been flagged for a team-high eight penalties.
So, where do things stand for both players with their NFL Draft stock? I went right to the source and asked Brugler this week. Here’s what he said:
“Both are tough to peg right now. Nelson’s play has shown more volatility this season than expected. Scouts like him for a lot of the reasons you would expect. He’s big (verified 6-6 3/4, 311 pounds, 33 3/4-inch arms), physical and competitive. Smart on the field and grinder off the field. Consistency has been an issue for him in 2023, but he has more good than bad on tape.
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“Allen entered the season with second-round grades from several scouts. Love his size, vision, acceleration. Plus the fact that he’s still only 19 years old. But he’s also put the ball on the ground too much this season (didn’t see that on last year’s film). Needs to stay healthy and on the field.
“My guess right now is both are drafted in the third round if they declare, but that might change over the final month of the season and during the process. Both project as NFL starters.”
What are the top four positions that need to be upgraded in the transfer portal? — Mark V.
Answering this question in early November is a bit challenging largely because we don’t know which players on the current roster might seek a transfer or which veterans might have a strong desire to use their extra year of eligibility from the NCAA due to the pandemic-altered 2020 season. Knowing the scholarship numbers at each position would be helpful to better understand where Wisconsin can attack the portal.
For example, let’s say Allen declares for the NFL Draft and Chez Mellusi chooses to move on after this season. That would still leave Wisconsin with six scholarship running backs, three of whom currently are committed in the 2024 class. Adding a transfer would seem unlikely, but Jackson Acker would be the only running back with significant college experience. Of course, Mellusi never used a redshirt season during his college career and could return for a fifth season given that he only appeared in four games this year before suffering a broken left leg. Those kinds of decisions can impact roster movement when there are 85 scholarships available.
Wisconsin’s offensive line hasn’t necessarily met expectations, but the Badgers have five O-linemen coming in the 2024 class, which doesn’t leave much room for the portal.
In general, though, I think two positions on offense could be addressed through the transfer portal: tight end and wide receiver. Wisconsin just has not gotten enough out of its tight ends this season, and that’s a position offensive coordinator Phil Longo would love to utilize. Hayden Rucci is a fifth-year senior, and the future status of Jack Pugh, who has been sidelined this season due to personal reasons, is unknown. I like some of what we’ve seen from freshman Tucker Ashcraft, and Wisconsin has a big-time player coming in next season with four-star commit Grant Stec. But the Badgers could use as many playmakers as they can find.
Speaking of playmakers, I can see Wisconsin making a push for somebody in the portal at wide receiver. Wisconsin is bringing in 2024 commit Kyan Berry-Johnson, and Dike is a senior this season (though he, too, could hypothetically use the COVID-19 season for another year). But with the departure of receiver Lewis earlier this season, there would seem to be at least one scholarship available at receiver. The Badgers haven’t been as consistent or explosive as they wanted at the position.
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On defense, maybe the defensive line is a spot coaches could evaluate. Isaiah Mullens is a sixth-year senior, so he’ll be moving on. Gio Paez, Rodas Johnson and Isaac Townsend are all redshirt seniors. Wisconsin has two commits on the defensive line for 2024: Dillan Johnson and Hank Weber. James Thompson Jr. is the only D-lineman on the roster this season to have recorded at least one sack.
As for another position, it could be one of the linebacker spots. Outside linebacker C.J. Goetz is done after this season, and outside linebacker Aaron Witt hasn’t been healthy in three years, though the Badgers do have two outside linebackers in the 2024 class with Thomas Heiberger and Anelu Lafaele. Wisconsin has just one inside linebacker committed with Landon Gauthier.
I’m concerned with the O-line play. Tanor Bortolini can’t snap. Michael Furtney and Joe Huber spent almost every running play on the ground. I’ve never seen a pair of guards not only unable to sustain blocks but unable to stay on their feet. Do the coaches not see this? Why not try Jake Renfro at center, Bort at right guard and Joe Brunner at left guard? What am I missing? — David M.
I haven’t seen Wisconsin practice since the middle of August, so it’s tough to know what kind of progress the offensive line reserves have made. But since O-line coach Jack Bicknell Jr. is with that group every day, we’re left to assume he’s playing the guys that he trusts to execute the game plan on the most consistent basis.
If Renfro had managed to stay healthy since the spring, this likely would be a different conversation because he’d be at center with Bortolini at one of the guard spots. That would have meant Huber, Furtney and potentially Trey Wedig challenging for the other guard spot. I’ve received a lot of questions in recent weeks about why Renfro hasn’t played if he’s been cleared to return to the field. Fickell was asked about that this week.
“I think that the consistency of what we have to do up front kind of holds him back a little bit in where we are with just kind of rolling some of those guys in there,” Fickell said. “We’ve had enough inconsistencies with some nicks and bruises and things like that, that we’ve been fortunate at least up front we haven’t had as much of that. So that’s kind of one of the stabilizing factors that make it a little bit harder to get Jake probably some reps that he deserves.”
I guess that’s Fickell’s way of saying that, because the top six have been healthy, the staff doesn’t just want to insert Renfro into the lineup and force wholesale changes at a critical juncture in the season. I also don’t know how ready he is to be thrown into game action for the first time since 2021. As for Brunner, I thought he would challenge for time at guard, but that hasn’t been the case. Even Wedig has had a tough time playing in recent games, with the staff choosing to use the starting five most of the way rather than rotate Wedig at each guard spot. Wedig went from playing 52 snaps against Iowa to one snap against Illinois and three snaps against Ohio State.
You watched a lot of spring ball. What could Cade Yacamelli and the backups provide along with Jackson Acker if Braelon Allen is out for a period of time? — Nathan R.
With Allen’s status in flux and Mellusi out, Wisconsin may have to turn to its preseason No. 3 and No. 4 running backs. That’s far from an ideal situation because there’s no way to replicate what Allen and Mellusi gave the Badgers. I will say that both Acker and Yacamelli possess what some people might consider to be surprising versatility.
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Acker is a physical tailback who can push the pile forward. Yet he also has 11 catches for 36 yards and can use that physicality in space, as he did when he lowered his shoulder on a 6-yard reception in the left flat and knocked over Rutgers linebacker Tyreem Powell. His performance against Rutgers — 13 carries for 65 yards and two receptions for 14 yards — is the best I’ve seen him. Wisconsin is going to need that version of Acker, though it remains to be seen whether putting 20-plus carries on him is a viable path to victory.
Yacamelli is more of a mystery because he has carried just once in his college career — a 4-yard loss against Ohio State last week when safety Lathan Ransom blew up the play. He combines some of those physical traits with good speed. His top-end speed of 20.37 miles per hour this offseason was the fourth-fastest on the team. One thing to note about Yacamelli is that he is actually one of the most versatile players on the offense. Wisconsin coaches evaluated him as a recruit at wide receiver, running back and safety. His pass-catching ability could be something the Badgers utilize.
“One thing I feel like I’ve gotten really good at this fall camp is the option route,” Yacamelli told me in August. “I feel like I’ve been working linebackers pretty well. Also the wheel route. I’ve been very good on the wheel. I’ve been open many times on that. I think it’s just kind of simple for me. You just use your speed, run around the linebacker, beat him over the top.”
(Top photo: John Fisher / Getty Images)